Determined the timing of the inevitable catastrophe on Earth
Geophysicist Daniel Rothman (Daniel Rothman) from the Massachusetts Institute of technology using a mathematical model found that at the end of the XXI century on the Earth will begin a new global extinction. This happens as a result of changes in the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. The article was published in the journal Science Advances, this press release is available on the website Phys.org.
Rothman analyzed the changes in the geochemical carbon cycle during the last 450 million years, covering the five great extinctions, in which the rate of species extinction is much higher than usual. He found that the destabilization of the biosphere occurs when the “catastrophic thresholds” of the carbon cycle.
The researcher derived a formula that links the relative change in the volume of inorganic carbon in the ocean with the speed of this change. He showed that the accident will occur in one of two conditions. If carbon accumulates slowly, the extinction will occur when the rate of accumulation exceeds the rate that can be adapted ecosystems. In the case of rapid short-term accumulation plays a fatal role in the magnitude of the volume changes.
According to the scientist, due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions currently under the second scenario. By the year 2100, the accumulated in the oceans the carbon will lead to the loss of biosphere stability that will lead to the beginning of the sixth great extinction. The disappearance of wild species of animals and plants can last for several thousand years.