Why the failure of all the predictions about the victory of Hillary Clinton? Explains sociologist Gregory Yudin
By the beginning of the elections, all polls unanimously predicted a landslide victory to Hillary Clinton in the presidential election in the United States. But won Donald trump. “Medusa” asked the Professor of the Moscow higher school of social and economic Sciences (Seninki) Gregory Yudin to explain why sociologists are so far off.
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Gregory Yudin, Professor of the Moscow Higher School of Social and Economic Sciences.
Polls didn’t account for a huge share of supporters trump. At the polls there is a defect: to interview only those who want to answer. Supporters of Donald trump into this category of people do not.
People who always or for a long time did not participate in the elections and generally stayed away from politics. They don’t trust the current system, politics and the establishment. Pre-election polls are seen as a part of the system, so I don’t want to answer.
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Donald trump won the presidential election
They would be the elections go, if only not seen among the candidates of the person who is able to change, flip or break the situation. That is the kind of candidate they saw in the Donald trump. And the polls did not record this category of voters and worked with those who prefer to work — that is, people who feel the current system is relatively comfortable.
A similar situation exists during the democratic primaries. During the election of the democratic candidate of sociological services in some States, predicted a victory for Clinton, but won in the Bernie Sanders — a man who, like trump, opposed themselves to the system.
People hesitate to admit that they support trump.
And this is another reason why the surveys did not consider them. Clinton’s campaign was built on the tactics of the “God forbid”, the demonization of Donald trump and his supporters.
The threat posed by the trump had to mobilize the electorate. In the last two or three weeks, it has achieved some absolutely incredible forms. Clinton directly accused trump the work of a hostile state (Russia), that is, in fact, called him a traitor. Supporters of trump tried to present as abnormal people.
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As shown by the elections, these people are ready to be abnormal, but in the preliminary surveys, they hesitated to talk about it because of public pressure. It so happened that each supporter of the trump had to admit that he’s kind of a geek. This affected the results of the polls. So negative campaign Clinton strangely hit on her.
The anticipation of an easy victory, Clinton demobilized its supporters. Pre-election polls created a sense that Hillary Clinton is a very big advantage, although it is known that she, like trump, the highest anti-rating.
Many people who thought to vote for Clinton as “the lesser of two evils”, has decided that she’s gonna win, and lost all motivation to go to vote.