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© RIA Novosti / Max Winds
Only ten of the past in Russia over the past five years seventy gubernatorial campaigns took place on the competition scenario in the elections this year, the competitive potential is observed in two regions, Karelia Republic and Kirov region, the Foundation for civil society development (Fcsd).
With the 2012 election of heads of regions were covered in 67 subjects of the Russian Federation, four of them leaders in this period managed to elect twice, reminded the experts.
Competitive steel only every seventh elections
Thus, a total of five years were 71 election campaign, of which ” competition was only 10,” says the Fund’s report on the election of heads of regions in 2017.
“The vast majority of elections 2012-2016 took place at the “referendum” scenarios. That is, the winners were known in advance, and if the struggle was conducted only for the second place… In 2017, most campaigns were “referendum” , — stated in Fcsd.
The experts emphasize that “elections do not cease to be the election if it is known beforehand who will elect the majority of voting”. Competitiveness, according to them, is an option, not a qualifying characteristic of the elections as “referendumului”.
The Fund has assessed as competitive elections 2015 in Irkutsk region, culminating in the election of the candidate of the Communist party Sergei Levchenko, who, according to the Fcsd experts, ” does not look a strong contender at the start of the campaign.”
There is also a number of competitive experts attributed the mayoral elections in 2013, elections of heads in the Republic of Altai and Yakutia in 2014, as well as the Amur, Arkhangelsk, Mari-El and Omsk elections of 2015, Chita and Ulyanovsk — 2016.
The forecast for 2017
Of the 16 regions, elected by the chapters this year, two (Belgorod oblast and Mordovia) is a dominate local politics, ” no they do not have competitors and can not be in principle,” according to Fcsd. Stable situation is observed in the Saratov region. Similarly, the strong position of the incumbent and the Tomsk region, where it participates in the elections “the most famous critic of the Governor”, the representative of LDPR Alexey Didenko; however, according to experts, “from the beginning he made it clear that he just needs to finally gain a foothold in the status of Tomsk “policy No. 2″ in the future”.
Four of the region where September 10 to elect leaders, “until recently, ruled by the heads or inherently weak or weakened and compromised during the elite conflict” , noted in Fargo. We are talking about Perm, Novgorod, Ryazan and Yaroslavl regions.
The report also States that the appointment in some regions, “acting, does not personally connected with the predecessors, not burdened with a load of errors” , “reset game”. “Electoral resource of the opposition in these regions there is no or they preferred to build relationships with prospective chapters through peaceful means,” reads the report.
In the Kaliningrad region and Udmurtia, as specified by the experts, everything was “zeroed” and with roughly the same consequences. Thus, “in 10 regions of 16 or there is no ground for electoral competition or potential competitors chose to “pass” highlighted in the report. Particularly indicative of the situation, according to them, happened in Mari El Republic, where the Communist party not only refrained from reiterating Sergey Mamayev, who participated in the elections in 2015, but have allowed their regional office to join the candidate of the power.
In addition, experts say, in most cases, the party and the major political investors are now trying not to “pinch” because of the proximity of presidential elections.
Competitive potential
In five regions this year will be elections, “revealed competitors or those who take for themselves” , according to the Fund. While in Buryatia, the Sverdlovsk region and the Sevastopol still implemented the “referendum” a scenario of elections. So, in Buryatia the main opponent could be the representative of the CPRF Vyacheslav markhayev, which could not overcome the municipal filter. In the Sverdlovsk region this participant was the mayor of Yekaterinburg Yevgeny Roizman, who wanted to move from the “Apple” he is, in the opinion of the Fcsd experts, organized imitation of his gubernatorial campaign.
In Sevastopol, ” wanting to make some noise in the election there were many, but one was never put forward, while others failed to pass the filter.” Thus from the candidates, publicly disloyal to the current head of the region was were only Communist Roman Kiyashko, however, as consider in Fund “it’s not like he was a serious contender for the governorship”.
“A competitive potential we see only in the Karelia Republic and Kirov region, where it was “eserka” Irina Petelava and, accordingly, “Zhirinovsky” Kirill Cherkasov with the already mentioned Sergey Mamaev” , — stated in the report of Fcsd.
Experts believe that Petelava can’t in this election to win the acting head of Karelia Arthur Parfenchikov and even unlikely to achieve the second round. “However, at a certain scenario that she is able to “shoot down” the result to 55-53%, which Parfenchikov likely to receive the lowest score (elected/presbyacusis acting)” , — assume in the Fund.
Less dangerous candidate from the Communist party Sergey Mamaev for the acting Governor of the Kirov region, Igor Vasiliev, experts say. “His success in the Mari El Republic in 2015 (32,3%), if at all objectively, not its success but the consequence of the unpopularity of Leonid Markelov. Mamaev just Packed all of his disapproval… just Need to keep in mind that in addition to the Mamayev was still Cherkasov. He also participated in the Kirov elections in 2014 and in the Mari 2015 (the first time took 9.9 percent, the second — 7,1%). Together, they will likely score more than Petelava” , — noted in the report.