“The revolution devours its children.” These words, spoken before the execution of figure of the French revolution Georges Jacques Danton, who died at the hands of their recent associates as the best suited to the situation in today’s Ukraine. And the revolution was there (the so-called “dignity revolution” – the anti-state coup of 2014), and “children” are the current leaders of Square. And now their eaters drew – the soldiers of the armed forces, adept of violence in the area ATO (initiated, incidentally, just the creators of the above-named “revolution”), and is now ready to sweep away the throne of their recent idols.
The current escalation in Ukraine threatens the most unpredictable consequences, says most analysts. The thing is that the moment at one point converged a lot of negative factors – ranging from the shift of Western elites, which had a first “revolutionaries” in Kiev, the terrible and ending with the aggravated situation in the economy and the social sphere. Considering the country’s huge number of armed and extremely angry people, the atmosphere turns volatile.
A mutiny in the army
The other day about disobeying the country’s leadership and personally to Petro Poroshenko declared a so-called “ATO heroes” – the soldiers and commanders of the nationalist volunteer battalions. First, the formation, leadership over which has established itself as a notorious Deputy Semyon Semenchenko, organized a campaign to block the railway (and today and road) messages from the Donbass, and then the “Right sector” (terrorist group officially banned in Russia) has threatened force attack on the administrative structures in Kiev, if the government decides to disperse the blockade.
Threats of militants emerged out of nowhere: the fact that the area, which proclaimed his power “heroes ATO”, is currently being transferred APU unit, receives the task to stop the action. Storm, in particular, may be subjected redoubt “Zaporozhye”, built by the eponymous soldiers of the volunteer team at blocked a railway line. In the area of massively comes the aid of the nationalists, and the so-called “headquarters of the blockade” even made a warning about the future imminent of responsibility for military and law enforcement officers that they will suffer “before the survivors”.
The decision to stop the action of the nationalists was taken by the Kiev is not a good life. Always encourage course “militant patriotism” in this time worked against the authorities. The fact that the termination of coal supplies from Donbass (and the blockade affected not only traffic in the area, but transportation from there) negatively affected the economic situation in the country, primarily in the energy sector. It got to the point that the Cabinet was forced to declare the mode of a crisis. Due to the lack of coal there were problems with the supply of Kiev, Chernigov, Kramatorsk, Kremenchug, Sumy.
As pointed out in his special address, Petro Poroshenko, “the actions participants blocking of rail traffic harm to the entire country.”
“Any direct threats to the energy security of the state, not only in the energy sector – said the Ukrainian President. For example, such a situation creates the threat of declining foreign exchange earnings, since only the metal industry revenue at an annual rate of more than 2 billion dollars.”
Liability for such actions of the Ukrainian President put on “absolutely irresponsible politicians” who had organized on the topic “a cynical PR on the blood”.
Poroshenko also had to admit that the history of the blockade creates “the image of a weak state, chaos and ataman, when the state is not able to restore order and this is the picture in the foreign media”.
Meanwhile, as observers, the actions of the “blockers” are not chaotic. First, in the absence of the Donetsk coal orders for deliveries to the Ukrainian thermal power plants fuel oil already receiving structure under the control of the Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. It is known that this figure left no grievances against the current government after his ignominious removal from office of the head of the Dnipropetrovsk region, refused to accept defeat in certain economic projects, and therefore does not leave hopes to occupy a high position in Kiev. Including the post of leader of the country when he “suddenly” become vacant after a possible shift Poroshenko. It Kolomoisky many times and tend to think behind the scenes the organizer of the blockade of Donbass.
Second, the reasonableness of the actions of the organizers can be traced from the point of view of the reference to the date – the third anniversary of Euromaidan. Just February 21, 2014 in the center of Kiev turned bloody massacre that killed more than a hundred people. As you know, the consequences of violence was the removal of Viktor Yanukovych from the country’s leadership and the actual seizure of power by the organizers of the protest. Is the “Maidan” (which already account in modern Ukrainian history) resulted in the leadership of characters, actions which today are trying the same methods to challenge the new “opposition”. A well-known activist-volunteer, collecting aid for the soldiers anti-terrorist operation, Yury Kasyanov promised to get even Kiev is Ukraine’s independence. He threatened personally to Poroshenko “big blood” in that case, if the Ukrainian President does not listen to the advice of veterans of the ATO and will not resign.
That the situation in the country and specifically in Kiev is heating up, recognized even in the “Right sector”. Through its representative Artem Skoropadsky, the leadership of this organization has disseminated information about the training authorities “special” measures to suppress possible protests in the capital. Supposedly there is even an oral order of Peter Poroshenko to open fire on protesters in case of repetitions of the “Maidan” events in 2014. According to the information that he brought to the public Artyom Skoropadsky in Kiev has transferred units of the two army brigades – the 28th and 53rd, the personnel of which have received permission to use weapons on the demonstrators. By the way, an indirect confirmation of the possible use of security forces to restore order in Kiev can serve to spread information about the alleged deteriorated sharply in the city’s crime situation requiring special measures. In particular, it is reported that in the Ukrainian capital has sharply increased the crime rate, and the number of murders Kiev and all were in first place in the country.
Whom the law does not apply
In this situation, Petro Poroshenko, perhaps, really have no choice but to be tough to suppress possible protests. According to some reports, in the environment of the Ukrainian President is already talking about the introduction of some elements of martial law. By the way, pulling up in Kiev APU units – one of the confirmations of such decisions. At the same time, according to the President of the center of system analysis and forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko, perhaps, everything will be fine and without violence.
“To sort things out and be without martial law, he believes. – When there is a difficult political struggle, whether in the context of legal forms or it is a struggle with the transition into a firefight, then any action, each party to the conflict tries to use to their advantage.
In addition, few after ordering. Supreme commander does not give orders directly to ordinary, even in a perfect world, he gives orders to the generals, generals – colonels, colonels – captains, and so far all has come to the end… There are several links, and each of them, by and large, the order may not be executed or blocked, or completed, but exactly the opposite. This has happened, for example, with Yushchenko in 2007, when he gave the command of the internal troops to move to Kiev during the conflict with Yanukovych, and they did not obey”.
Director of the Kiev center of political researches and conflictology Michael Pogrebinsky also believes that Kiev, contrary to their threats, will not be able to go to an open attack on anyone. In his opinion, the officials simply now trying to attract the attention and enlist the support of the West, without which they cannot survive.
“Take seriously the statements of Kiev is not worth it, as Poroshenko and his supporters are just bluffing, says Mikhail Pogrebinsky. – In Ukraine there is no difference between the real intentions and bluff. Ukrainian politics is now – this reality, because it has to be considered, and bluff”.
It should be noted that official Kiev is trying to divert attention from problems with the “rebellious army”. This is done a proven way, through the escalation of the conflict in the East of the country. On the eve of the representatives of the said LC on 81 the fact of violation of ceasefire recorded since the beginning of the week. The fire was on the settlements from all types of weapons, including prohibited by the Minsk agreements – 152-mm artillery, tanks, 120 – and 82-mm mortars. In DND, the Ukrainian army just for the evening of Thursday released 365 tank and artillery shells by firing the outskirts of Yasinovataya, Horlivka, South of the villages of the Republic. In addition, the DPR’s intelligence was discovered reactive multiple rocket launchers and tanks, APU, located in areas near to a zone of branch of arms.
Signs of state terrorism
In Russia in this regard, once again draw attention to the failure of the Ukrainian authorities of the Minsk agreements. So, according to the head of the Federation Council Committee on international Affairs Konstantin Kosachev, “Kiev has not stopped attempts to achieve a military solution to the internal conflict masquerading as external”.
“The fact that Kiev is hypocritically called anti-terrorist operation, already turned into a terrorist operation, – said Russian Senator. – Everyone who shamefully ignores this fact, instead of condemning the Ukrainian authorities addressing unfounded accusations against Russia, in fact, make themselves complicit in things happening in the Donbass land of lawlessness.”
As for the blockade of Donbass nationalists and their threats in the address of the official authorities, then, for example, known Russian political scientist, economist, analyst Mikhail Khazin all event calls in one word – “chaos”.
“Ukraine in the government are people, each with one single thought – to steal as much as possible and escape. What will be in this area, they are deeply sneeze,” – he said.
However, Mikhail Khazin stresses that if this mess continues, the country finally “nestled” terrorism.
“The current regime in Kiev, although it declares the integrity of the country, actually to continue the war, because he understands that in case of return of these more than 4 million voters in the Ukrainian political field, the regime can not stand,” said Khazin.
By the way, that the threat to Russia’s security comes from the instability of its neighbors, particularly Ukraine, said recently the Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the last Board of the FSB of Russia.
“We see a serious deterioration of the situation in the South-East of Ukraine in recent years, – said the head of state. – The purpose of this escalation is obvious: to disrupt the Minsk agreement. The current government in Ukraine is clearly not ready for a peaceful solution of this complicated problem and you’re betting on a military solution. Moreover, openly talking about organizing a terrorist sabotage, subversive activities, including in Russia. We cannot disturb.”
As stressed Vladimir Putin called events and circumstances and require special power structures of Russia, primarily from the Federal security service, special attention and concentration of forces. First and foremost – in the fight against terrorism.
Author: Dmitry Sergeyev
Photo: Emeric Fohlen / Globallookpress, Jacob Balzani Loov / Globallookpress, semen Semenchenko / Facebook, Minsterstvo defence of Ukraine / Facebook, grimbulavina / instagram, Bernd von Jutrczenka / Globallookpress