Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov is right for the new year “happy” Ukrainian public. Man, with a light hand which is in the South-East of the country and began a bloody “anti-terrorist” operation has assured that the 2017 year will be a turning point in the “liberation” of Donbass.
Based on the experience
Without a past, as we know, does not happen and the future. Past 2016-the year of no surprises on the part of the behavior of the Ukrainian military personnel brought. Although the saturation and the brunt of the fighting due to the Minsk agreements has been reduced significantly, to completely eliminate clashes between the Ukrainian army and the armies of DNR and LNR in the contact group failed. Attempts to break the Ukrainian military are recorded by observers and journalists from month to month. What is happening is difficult to fit into the framework of full-scale hostilities, but inevitably, after each attempt to break a repeated pattern of two, three years ago, when “the offensive” operation return to the position of the mouth instead of multiple returns just a dozen people. One of the most recent examples – the summer outing of the APU in the direction of Debaltsevo.
Then, at the end of June, the command of the APU actually signed the refusal to comply with any agreement. However, for a large military operation of the summer mini-the onset of the APU did not look even partly. After the Ukrainian military “rollback” on the source, experts and military experts conducted an analysis of the short fights and came to the conclusion that the implementation of a relatively small breakthrough and consolidation of the bridgehead Ukrainian military and fighters natsbatov had neither the strength nor the time. Not solving the problem of a breakthrough on one of the strategic directions, the Ukrainian military suffered serious losses. According to some sources, the losses of the APU is made up of two tank platoons.
Unlike the summer campaign, fighting in Svetlodarsk direction at the end of December 2016 out of the General picture and the dynamics of confrontation for several reasons. The first and most important reason why a local altercation almost turned into a full-scale clash – complete lack of access and control of monitoring teams to the positions of the APU and lack of data on the armament of the troops on the front line. This fact allows the Ukrainian military to promptly transfer to the desired direction not only mortars with a caliber of 80 and 120 mm, and artillery.
Violation of the agreements
In the video, posted by journalist Graham Phillips right from the front, is clearly seen as the Ukrainian army “processes” the position of the men who had taken refuge in the trenches. According to the military breakthrough of the infantry of the 54th OBMR APU at the end of December was similar to almost all similar operations and planned without taking into account the previous losses. Experts say that if they had a serious clash with tanks and artillery on both sides, then advanced deep into the territory of the Ukrainian infantry could easily fall into another “pot”. The same pattern unfolded in the organization “debaltsevskogo boiler” in the past. However, any lack of supervision by international observers, and this time did not allow the Ukrainian military to implement the plans. According to the statement of the representative of the LPR militia major Andrey Marochko, Ukrainian armed forces over the past day 15 times violated the ceasefire, firing on the territory of the Republic more than 300 min and 130 artillery shells, including the 152-mm. Later, data on the loss of the APU said the head LNR Igor Carpentry. “About 150 Ukrainian soldiers have paid with their lives and health for adventurism Poroshenko,” – said Carpenter. LC representatives in their statements, stressed that the command of the APU in particular, and the leadership of Ukraine violate the Minsk agreement and actually spit on the results achieved.
In the three years that have passed since the beginning of the so-called anti-terrorist operation in the South-East, no significant success of the APU was not achieved. The lack of resistance and desire from the militia to fight against Ukrainian regular army has played with the armed forces General staff and headquarters ATO a cruel joke more than once. In addition to permanent errors in the planning of special operations of the Ukrainian troops is not decided, and another, not less important problem – the lack of medical personnel on the front line and providing timely assistance.
According to the Donetsk military, up to a third of the personnel of the APU dies without receiving first aid. In this connection remain unclear statements by officials of the government of Ukraine that the 2017-th year will be a turning point in the “liberation” of Donbass. Despite the fact that the order of the (then) acting President Turchynov began a punitive operation against residents of the South-East of Ukraine, the sanity of the command structure, and gross errors in the conduct of military operations say that for a major breakthrough of the APU at the forefront are not ready yet.
However, military expert, associate Professor of REU named after G. V. Plekhanov Alexander perendzhiev notes that underestimate the ability of Ukraine to arrange a provocation impossible. “To argue that no provocation with a large number of attacks in the near future will not be – we should do it now. In the first place because the Ukrainian authorities wanted to spit on any agreement. Besides, actively developed the so-called “gray zone” – thrown weapons different calibers. With all this, the Ukrainian security officials claim that any infringements it is not listed. I would call this process “creeping aggression”, because such a point of collision of the Western community and the observers are not taken seriously, and nobody in Ukraine has in this case no pressure,” – said the expert.
A full-scale conflict or provocation, with the involvement of considerable forces and means, according to the expert, means for Ukraine not only heavy losses, but also the condemnation of the European community, which is using the Ukrainian government and the media for three years, played a soap Opera called “confronting the aggressor”. However, the main and yet unsolved problem of the APU is still inept command. Gradually talk about the failure of the Ukrainian command seep on a TV program on Ukrainian television. To write one such program , the volunteer national guard of Ukraine Sergey Kutrakov told that in the Ukrainian army for a separate special operations long ago there was a special term. Operation “On” or “operation Point”, according to Koutrakou, describes the failure of the tactical maneuver, which in recent years “were very much”. According to the soldier of the national guard, despite the fact that the majority of soldiers returned home in coffins, great success to achieve is still not possible. The situation with the morale and success of the APU, according to Koutrakou, can resolve change of status of the ATO to full-scale war and the introduction of martial law. However, the experience of several waves of mobilization showed that neither forcibly mobilized to the front line soldiers or volunteers-Nazis at the situation can not influence.
The failures of the APU, the resistance of the Donetsk and Lugansk military lead to the conclusion that the military solution for the conflict in the Donbas the administration of Poroshenko and the Ukrainian army simply does not exist. The only way to peace is the cessation of hostilities. However, to solve the problem the world the administration Poroshenko is in no hurry. Experts and analysts on their assessment of the actions of the APU and the government of Ukraine try not to give, because who knows how many will survive the regime that seized power through a military coup, after the main foreign “sponsor” the change of authorities.
Author: Dmitry Yurov
Photo: Graham Phillips / Youtube / mil.gov.ua / Chenjunfeng / Xinhua /Anatolii Stepanov / ZUMAPRESS.com / Globallookpress