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RIA Novosti
The risk of the outbreak of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula is, therefore, the United States, the DPRK and South Korea need to change the tone of the conversation, the Chairman of the Foundation Council of the club “Valdai” Andrey Bystritsky.
The situation on the Korean Peninsula escalated after exchange of harsh words between the DPRK and the United States. North Korea has promised to release a ballistic missile to the area of GUAM, where the us air base Andersen naval base APRA-Harborne. The US President Donald trump said that if the DPRK leader Kim Jong-UN “do something with GUAM, North Korea will happen such an event, which no one has ever seen”.
“I do not believe that war is inevitable. I think it probable, and more probable than ever for a number of reasons. First, with great ease began to talk about it. The very utterance of sentences about nuclear attacks, about the attacks was flippantly acceptable, and it is very dangerous. The level of intensity of the rhetoric is very high,” — said the expert RIA Novosti.
He noted that the opponents do not understand what a North Korea. “The main danger is not that North Korea is a malignant villain, but the fact that nobody understands what is North Korea. Secondly, in this situation of mutual misunderstanding, lack of rules of order may occur a misunderstanding… everything correctly say — diplomatic efforts, God forbid, that they gave result. In addition, however, you need to change the tone of the conversation,” said Bystritsky.
He recalled that the essence of U.S. policy against the DPRK is described by the phrase ” strategic patience.” “Now it is for a number of reasons did not become strategic — started the escalation of the conflict. The North Koreans, South Koreans and Americans have each other to cheat and cheat. Now the question is, to what extent, and whether it will be possible to avoid unexpected steps. A problem in the interpretation of their steps. The risk of misunderstanding, of mutual incomprehension,” — said the expert.
According to him, to avoid misunderstandings, we need channels of communication contacts, ” otherwise things can go even against the will of the leaders, because you won’t be able to hold the situation.”
“Under the influence of different kinds of reasons — bureaucratic, psychological, personal, situational things can go wrong. So the risk is there,” — said the expert.
The DPRK, despite the sanctions of the UN security Council, continues to conduct missile tests under the pretext of protection from military aggression of the US and its allies. Last week the situation around the Korean Peninsula even more tense after exchange of harsh words between the DPRK and the United States.
Earlier, the foreign Ministers of Russia and China issued a joint statement on the problems of the Korean Peninsula (the plan “double-freeze”). In particular, both countries have proposed the DPRK to declare a moratorium on nuclear tests and missile launches, and South Korea and the United States to refrain from conducting exercises in the region. It is assumed that the parallel opposing sides will begin to negotiate and approve the General principles of relationships, including non-use of force and the intention to make efforts for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Russia has also proposed to develop a roadmap for the gradual restoration of trust and create conditions for the resumption of six-party talks.
This initiative is already supported by some countries, in particular Germany. The U.S., however, continues to state that it considers all of the solution to the North Korean problem, including the military. The DPRK response to the Russian-Chinese initiative is not given.