The Ukrainian authorities again promised the imminent liberation of Donbass, this time through the mouth of the interior Minister of Ukraine Arsen Avakov. Now the battle should go the Ukrainian army and nationalist battalions, and… border guards, police, bodies of justice. For a full list of all this “guard” is not enough unless the wildlife and fisheries that in a single offensive rush ride “fiery shaft” right up to the borders of Russia. Hard to believe this brilliant tactical plan police General with difficulty, but then, that wood with its filing in the Donbass are still mangled there is no doubt.
Such a statement he made on the Board of the state border service, where he urged the Ukrainian border guards to be ready to attack on the uncontrolled Kiev territory of Donbass already in 2017. The Minister said categorically, as always, gave, that is to say, confidence in the crowd spoke.
Perhaps because there was General Valery geletey, who heads the Office of the state guard of Ukraine, where it was copied from the post of Minister of defense of Ukraine in 2014, after the defeat of the APU militia of Donbass under Ilovaisk and Izvarino. Special military achievements of General geleta not famous, but loudly and publicly stated that in 2014 there might be a parade of Ukrainian troops in… Sevastopol. And now again, geletey promised a parade in Sevastopol, adding, however, that “willing to do the same thing and after two and a half years.” So a company Avakov had nothing to do, how loudly to send his guards – well, the battle to the borders.
In the company “commanders” not enough yet Verkhovna Rada Deputy Andriy Teteruk, who had a little earlier to go even further in the great plans. He said neither more nor less that the Ukrainian army is able to defeat the Russian and to March in… the centre of Moscow. Against this background, even the President Poroshenko, who promised to liberate Donbass and Crimea in 2014, then in 2015, 2016 and now 2017, the year just pales. Well, unless you do not declare capabilities in defiance of Russia to conquer the moon next week.
However, all these ridiculous and absurd statements of the Ukrainian security forces and Parliament-nationalists show that the consent of the comrades in Kiev, not at all. And yet, the government is losing the trust of the military of their units of the APU, which fell headlong in the Donbas in a series of senseless attacks and the lack of significant results. And now Avakov is no longer appealing to the army and gives her unfulfilled promises, and that sort of subordinate in the battle to send want. And maybe what it is actually about preparing a military operation whose goal is the return of the territories of Donbass under the control of Kiev. How realistic Avakov to reach the border?
“The Ukrainian-Russian border, which represents the Eastern boundary of the DNR/LNR is approximately 300 kilometers, says military historian Alexander Zimovsky. – Throughout this phase, there is no one “prikordonnik”, which was subordinated to Kiev. At the beginning of the civil war, about 80 percent of the personnel of the Ukrainian pogranchasti, located at the site, moved to the side of the unrecognized republics. The rest were given to leave the territory controlled by Kiev.
So now border control is carried out solely by the DNR/LNR and Russia. The customs regime is no different from the customs regime of Ukraine. The only difference is that DNR/LNR have introduced a visa-free regime for citizens of all countries of the world. North of the village Novokievka in the LC of the Ukrainian-Russian border goes back under control of Kiev. In the South Ukraine currently has a land border with Russia only on the Perekop isthmus.
Physically now Eastern Ukrainian border is the front line between Kiev forces and the militias of the DPR/LPR. It is quite a formal border, there is a zone, the patrols are carried out checkpoints and defensive mode.
Why I pretty much say this? Because it is advisable that you imagined the operational configuration. There is only one place where the law-enforcers can try to stop the militias from their positions. Is the neck on the South of the DNI, stretched from the sea of Azov to the North on 40 kilometers, a width of 33-35 miles. Here’s a springboard Kiev must take the DNI, the soldiers of the border service of Ukraine has returned to duty in a regular mode.
Since the strength of the parties in this area “Azov corridor” is unknown to me, I’m not going to theorize, but I can say that in similar operational circumstances, the German field Marshal Manstein, with 13 divisions, more than 600 tanks and 500 aircraft, success is not achieved and the task is not fulfilled. In this case I’m talking about operation Wintergewitter, it can be read in books. As an example this quote because fantasies Avakov, whom he generously shared at the Board of Ukrainian “prikordonnikov”, military solution, not Facebook, tea. I understand this and present that it is prudent not to answer the call to “Be prepared” classical “Usegda ready.”
We all know that Arsen Borisovich Avakov, of course, the great Ukrainian commander, but why did the stool break? Here we are likely dealing with a case of lung dimness of mind which is now in Kiev, on the eve of the inauguration of the trump, is gaining epidemic proportions. That is before us is a classic telegram, sent by the mad commander of the brigade of the immortal novel about the adventures of the good soldier Schweik: “Train to enroll in the Eastern band. Exploration service is canceled. Thirteenth battalion marching to build a bridge over the river bug. The details in the Newspapers”.
Only instead of Newspapers in a fledgling head of the Kiev Ministerial now with Facebook Twitter. And the output is still the same solemn spanking, generously seasoned with paranoid Russophobia”.
But for the political prospects of the Arsen Avakov, they are very vague. “The guy in the Board” in Kiev, very few people considers, moreover, that he has managed to quarrel with many local oligarchs and parliamentarians were involved in many scandals. It is unlikely for him to be clinging Petro Poroshenko, who himself will become a “lame duck” – just to him about his destiny it is necessary to think, especially given the change of power in the White house. Of those who may become the new Ukrainian President, among the possible candidates in the face called the former head of the SBU Nalyvaychenko, Kyiv mayor Klitschko and eternal Yulia Tymoshenko, is unlikely to find someone who cares about the fate of Avakov. So, it is necessary to engage in self-promotion. Nothing else but to have “an old song about the main thing” – the restoration of the integrity of Ukraine at the Donbass, it is particularly come up with fails.
Author: Viktor Sokirko
Photo: Arsen Avakov / Facebook; mil.gov.ua