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Kommersant
Only six heads of regions have earned the “five” in the ranking of survival
Four of the 14 governors of the regions where have direct elections of heads, received the “twos” in the ranking of survival of governors of the Fund “Petersburg politics” and “Minchenko consulting”. Among them the leaders of the Sverdlovsk region Yevgeny Kuyvashev and the Perm region Viktor Basargin. Only one Governor — the acting head of Sevastopol Dmitry Ovsyannikov, received a “five with a minus”.
Last rating of survival rate of governors was published more than a year ago, during this time, the country held elections to the state Duma. “They become a key test of political survival rate of governors. More significant are the specific interest and the number of elected deputies, and the impact of the campaign on intra balances in the regions and the socio-political consequences, including the satisfaction of certain groups their results,” say the authors. Experts draw attention to the fact that the approaching presidential elections in 2018 could “motivate the Federal government to the demonstration of strong steps and resignations of heads of regions, while promoting brightness and competitiveness of the gubernatorial campaigns.”
The authors suggest that the centre may go on assignment during campaign “technical” acting governors, candidates to the heads of the regions participated in the elections “on General grounds”. “It is also possible the question of the meaningfulness of the practice of granting governors the opposition parties (Orel, Smolensk region) — the constitutional majority of United Russia in the state Duma reduces the need for it. “Fair Russia” such jobs in Transbaikalia already lost, and the Communist party has demonstrated the ability to achieve the victory of their candidates for direct elections,” predict the authors of the rating.
The gubernatorial campaign next year will be held in 14 regions. The heads of four of them received the rating of survival “two”. Vyacheslav Nagovitsyn (Buryatia, in the past received a rating of “3”) reproach put “conflicts with local elites,” Viktor Basargin (Perm region, in the past the ranking of “3” minus) — “the absence of a clear strategy.” Sverdlovsk Governor Yevgeny Kuyvashev scored two points plus. “Close to the expiry date of reference raises the question of election in a competitive election given the lack of charisma and low popularity,” the authors of the rating. The same assessment was given to the head of the Saratov region Valery Radaev: “the lack of political subjectivity makes him vulnerable to opponents and reduces the value for supporters.”
“These governors — the last of the assigned chapters, they have not received approval for early elections, the question arises about their ability to get re-elected now. On the other hand, there are expectations that the new administration, the President will present their priorities in the personnel policy, assert its regional ambitions,”— says the head of Fund “the Petersburg policy” Michael Vinogradov. According to him, these changes may adversely affect the prospects of Valery Radaeva.
The governors of the three electoral regions received a “C-minus”. Alexander Khudilainen (Karelia), Sergey Mitin (Novgorod region) and Sergey Zhvachkin (Tomsk oblast).
Only one head of a subject, where the coming campaign, received a “five with a minus” — Dmitry Ovsyannikov (Moscow). The authors of the rating noted that it “has sufficient experience in public policy, is facing the task of building electoral rating”. Four points was estimated chances of survival, the acting head of the Yaroslavl region — the former employee FSO Dmitri Mironov, acting Governor of Kirov region, the former Deputy head of Rosreestr Igor Vasiliev, acting head of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov. The Quartet also received Yevgeny Savchenko (Belgorod region) and Vladimir Volkov (Mordovia). Troyka in Ryazan Governor Oleg Kovalev.
“Deuces” received and several regional leaders, have already passed elections: Valery Shantsev (Nizhny Novgorod region), Andrei Turchak (Pskov region), Vadim Potomsky (Oryol oblast), and Nikolai Merkushkin (Samara region).
Before the presidential election, according to Mikhail Vinogradov, “the aim is not quantitative, but qualitative support of government” voters. “The resignation of the governors can be a nod in the direction of critical-minded voters, some of the obvious allergens can be removed,”— said the expert.
Note that the “fives”, according to experts, has earned only six governors — Rustam Minnikhanov (Tatarstan), Ramzan Kadyrov (Chechnya), Sergey Sobyanin (Moscow), Alexander Drozdenko (Leningrad oblast), Alexei Dyumin (Tula oblast) and the already mentioned Dmitry Ovsyannikov.
Andrew Pepper, Katherine Grobman