Head of IRN Repchenko: an increase in mortgage rates will lead to an outflow of demand from the finished housing market to long-forgotten double-digit levels. New buildings will benefit from this, where demand from the secondary market will rush, believes Oleg Repchenko, head of the Real Estate Market Indicators (IRN) analytical center. His opinion is published on the IRN website.
As the expert notes, for the real estate market, the Central Bank's tough monetary policy (in particular, an increase in the key rate) means high mortgage rates. “In fact, in some banks, rates for the purchase of finished housing have already exceeded ten percent per annum, (…) this is a psychological threshold for a classic borrower-buyer of an apartment in the“ secondary housing ”,” says Repchenko.
Growth rates will lead to an outflow of demand from the “secondary housing” to the primary housing market, the analyst predicts. For buyers of new buildings, state mortgage programs are still in place, so many will abandon the idea of buying ready-made apartments. In addition, developers are launching their own credit programs for buyers (mortgages with subsidized rates, no down payment, installments).
rates subsidized by the market participants themselves, – emphasizes Repchenko. “And since prices for secondary housing are inflated no less than for primary housing, buyers, all other things being equal, will choose new buildings – at least mortgages are cheaper there.”
Earlier it was reported that the average cost per square meter of finished housing in Moscow for the year by November 2021 grew by 20 percent, to 270 thousand rubles (excluding the cost of luxury apartments).