The current scale fighting almost the entire line of confrontation in the Donbass comparable to the “boilers” in 2015, when the Ukrainian army suffered a serious defeat and lost many key positions. Now much success, no APU, no units of the DNI and LC, although serious losses already suffered by both sides. The only benefit one person – the President Poroshenko, which, as always, one shot trying to kill several “birds”. And, as usual, misses.
The sign in recent years: Poroshenko travels to Europe in the Donbass aktiviziruyutsya fighting, provoked by the Ukrainian armed units. And now it worked – he flew to Berlin to meet with Merkel under gun fire. However, the smile off your face quickly faded when reports of a major loss of the APU, and even the Germans this time openly talking about the fact that the aggression was provoked by Ukraine. Had to turn the shafts. But the mechanism of the fight to stop the failed Ukrainian army, got in a furious attack on sapatcom, angry and no longer hears the command: “Back!”. Maybe it’s because the Minister of defense promised an increase in “travel” in the area of ATO, but is likely because of the desire to vent on someone evil from losses. To turn the bayonets in the opposite direction is still a sense of military duty would not allow it.
The current approach of the APU took large forces on the position of the VSN (armed forces of new Russia) near Donetsk, in the triangle Sands – Yasinovataya – Avdeevka, on the arc Svetlodarsk, under Dokuchaevsk, in the area of Shirokino and in the direction of Slavyanoserbsk in the Lugansk region. In response, we received an even more powerful attack with all forces and means, which, it seems, did not expect.
To assess the magnitude of the current fighting, going down the map across the confrontation line. If from the South, from the sea of Azov, it is the settlement of Shirokino, located between the Ukrainian Mariupol and part of the DNI Novoazovsk. The settlement is long deserted, the surviving houses there is practically no value in its tactical plan is also quite questionable, but fighting over it being every time fierce. The attacking forces of the APU in part the Marines of the 36th brigade, battalion groups of the 28th and 17th motorized rifle brigade and the 54th razvedrota stumbled upon the defensive BCH and much success was not achieved.
Higher on North – Chervonoarmiiska and Kominternovo. There steppe and sort of operating room. But here, APU received the task to capture Kominternovo, and are unable to achieve a result and eventually retreated with losses to their original positions. However, were not satisfied and on January 31, again went on the offensive and managed to enter the village, but it never took. It is difficult to say in whose hands Kominternovo – there still is a fight.
Go to map of Novotroitskoye village, opposite the village Volnovaha, which was also fierce fighting. It’s already near the outskirts of Donetsk and one of the areas for scheduled APU environment Donbass capital. Success is not achieved, and the fighting moved into position. And then there is the more interesting “geography” is itself already the outskirts of Donetsk, where the main attack of the APU and of the nationalist battalions. The front line in the triangle Avdiyivka – Sands – Yasinovataya is difficult to determine. The first two villages such as under the control of Ukraine, Yasynuvata in the DPR, but it’s all relative concepts and not the fact that on 1 February, the situation will not change in favor of this or that.
This area is a wedge between Donetsk and Gorlovka. If the APU will be able to break through, you will be able to partially paralyze the action of the BCH and expect to move forward. But no promotion, and under the threat of capture was itself Avdeevka – there is Europe’s largest coke and chemical plant, which, besides the main products, the heat gave the entire region, including some areas of Donetsk. The plant on the verge of stopping – out of the furnace, porositsa from the cold brick and the company will come to an end. In the DNI Ukrainian while the plant survive like a native, and even refused the shelling of the AFU positions who pulled this section of the Minsk agreements prohibited the tanks.
Above this is the infamous Svetlodarsk arc named by the same name located here the city. The arc is curved to the inside of the territory of the DPR and the Ukrainian army tried to find a gap before and after the New year. The offensive failed, and APU to move forward could only a kilometer, and then only by an almost literal implementation of the “Minsk-2” VSN commanders who were counting on reciprocity in the respect of “peers”.
The most Northern point of the “hot” confrontation – above Lugansk near the town of Slavyanoserbsk, near the settlement Happiness. It’s more of a distraction, pulling of the armed forces with LC from other sectors.
To summarize so far, but with certainty we can say that authorized President Poroshenko another attack on the rebellious Donbass failed. Moreover, the situation on this front may change dramatically. First, the BCH showed that can give a decent response. There has been and a high professional level, how ordinary soldiers and officers. Plus were demonstrated efficiency in extension to the front of armored vehicles and artillery, which swept away the advancing enemy units. And secondly, the Ukrainian attack in conjunction with numerous victims among the civilian population resulted in the creation of a new volunteer corps. With such a powerful replenishment of the BCH is now the state of themselves to go on the offensive and recapture territory.
“It is obvious that taking in late January, the decision about the escalation of hostilities in the East, the command of the APU and the top political leadership of Ukraine made a serious miscalculation in the assessment of the situation and the enemy, – believes the military expert Vyacheslav Shurigin. – The flow of information on humanitarian issues DNR – LNR, as well as information about the contradictions between the commanders of the militia and the military command of the republics was, apparently, interpreted as signs of political and military weakening of the “separatists” became the basis for a new military operation. The advancing parts of the APU are now confronted by well-trained and armed regular units, managed by professional and energetic command. Defence militias supported by the development of artillery, swedeni in the brigade, and may at any time be reinforced by tank units for development success.”
The current intensity of the fighting has increased since the middle of last week, but by 30 January the situation left from-under political control. Both sides began to use rocket artillery, and increased casualties on both sides. The effectiveness of defending the BCH turned out to be disastrous for the APU, that under heavy artillery fire were forced to retreat. But the shells were getting in your own rear. Artillery duel in these days was recorded on almost the entire front line in the Donbass and they were not in favor of the APU. Operation “Creeping attack” in the literal sense of the word drowned in blood.
Well, what if it was? Dozens of dead, destroyed equipment, destroyed homes – the price for the plans of the Ukrainian President Poroshenko to squeeze out another tear of pity in the West (tears it drip several ways) was too high. And not work this time – did not believe neither in Germany nor in the EU or the OSCE, where recognized aggression is from Ukraine. For all say: stop fighting, sit down at the negotiating table, follow the previous agreement. But these words do not hear or do not want to hear. However, there was the Ukrainian authorities, the new rhetoric: the traditional “blame Putin”, added new foe Square – American President Donald trump. This means that Kiev will have to negotiate with his people.
Author: Viktor Sokirko
Photo: Minsterstvo defence of Ukraine / Facebook, mil.gov.ua, John trust / RIA Novosti, Sergey Averin / RIA Novosti, Stocki / face to face Globallookpress