Economist questioned Saxo Bank's forecast of 15% inflation in the United States

Economist Andrei Kolganov: Saxo Bank's forecasted inflation growth in the US is unlikely in a conversation with “” questioned the forecast given by the chief economist of Saxo Bank Steen Jacobsen.

Earlier, Jacobsen predicted that inflation in the United States will reach 15 percent by early 2023. According to the economist, unemployment, “extreme instability in the US stock and credit markets,” as well as the results of the midterm elections to Congress in November 2022 will have a significant impact on its growth.

Kolganov said that this is a forecast skeptical and considers the development of such a scenario unlikely, but does not 100 percent rule out a negative development of events in 2022.

“The inflation rate in the United States economy, in general, is not growing at a high rate, the inflationary spiral is not unfolding. There, inflation has become higher than it was in the previous period, but they do not have such rapid inflation growth rates, say, as in Russia, ”the economist explained, noting that inflation in Russia is not as catastrophically high as it was, for example, in the 90s or early 2000s.

Also, Kolganov would not consider 2022 in the United States as a year under threat of economic problems due to unemployment, since it is decreasing in the country even faster than the US government predicts.

But the economist considers the fears related to the situation in the financial markets to be more substantiated. “Financial markets, of course, are overheated, and a correction on them is possible, negative scenarios are possible, but again I do not think that these scenarios will acquire a crisis character. I think that the overheating of the economy, which is associated with a very large scale of money emission not only in the United States, but also in the European Union and other countries, will not lead to any catastrophic consequences on the stock markets, – said Kolganov, – This overheating will remain, in my opinion, for a long time, simply for the reason that there are no other instruments for maintaining the functioning of the stock market in the hands of the financial authorities now. Another question is that one day this bubble, of course, will burst, but this is unlikely to happen in the near future. ”

The economist allowed some very painful downturns in the financial market in the near future, but not so catastrophic like in 2008 or early 20th year.



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