RBC: Fitch agency called the likelihood of a lockdown due to the omicron strain low , assessed by the rating agency Fitch. According to analysts, the possibility of introducing a global lockdown is not high, RBC reports.
The agency explained that at the moment there is not enough objective information about the new omicron strain of coronavirus, so it is too early to take into account its consequences in forecasts of economic growth. However, experts called the likelihood of introducing a lockdown low. It will take from several days to several weeks to assess the danger of the omicron strain.
The most significant risk for the global economy will be new restrictive measures that countries will take if the greater danger of the omicron strain compared to the “delta” is confirmed … However, the agency adds that the new wave of coronavirus “has less impact on economic growth as the economy adapts, for example, through changes in work and consumption patterns.”
In addition, vaccination programs and a deeper understanding of the virus scientifically reduced the dependence of the situation on administrative restrictive measures. The pace of vaccination in this case can play a decisive role: for example, the example of countries in Europe and the United States shows that this process reduces the burden on health systems and the likelihood of introducing strict quarantine measures.
“These factors make it unlikely that the unprecedented decline in global GDP in the first half of 2020 “, – emphasized in Fitch.
Earlier, the head of Pershing Square Capital Management, Bill Akma, saw the benefits for the economy in the omicron strain of the coronavirus. In his opinion, the new version of COVID-19 could instill optimism in the stock markets.