The most wanted man in the world: where lies the leader of the IG?
The last time the leader of the “Islamic state” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi made a public appeal three years ago. Recently there were several reports of his death, but they have not yet been confirmed.
Three years ago in the Internet appeared the video, where the leader of the so-called “Islamic state” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi demands to swear allegiance to him during a sermon in the mosque an-Nuri in Mosul. Shortly before the Iraqi city was captured by the jihadists, who announced the creation of a “Caliphate”.
By this time, ISIS (an organization banned in several countries, including Russia — Bi-bi-si) controlled a territory the size of Britain, but since then, thanks to the international campaign, the jihadists had to retreat, and the whereabouts of al-Baghdadi, for the capture of which the US is offering $ 25 million, remains a mystery.
Now, on the third anniversary of the first and last public appearance for al-Baghdadi, the Islamic state has no control over most of the occupied territories, and the leader of the group keeps a suspicious silence. His last przepisanie the audiotape to followers appeared in November last year, after the battle for the liberation of Mosul from the militants.
Amid this silence has recently begun to receive unconfirmed reports of the death of al-Baghdadi.
Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia has said it is “probable” the death of al-Baghdadi in an attack by Russian aircraft in raqqa on 28 may, and last week an Iranian official asserted that al-Baghdadi “definitely dead.”
However, both these statements are questioned by us officials.
In the video, filmed in raqqa, a week after the appearance of the Russian reports, the militants have referred to their “Sheikh” without mentioning al-Baghdadi by name. The question of his fate, thus, remained open. In the end, the Taliban and al-Qaida hid the death of Taliban leader Mullah Omar for two years.
For both its supporters and opponents, the absence of al-Baghdadi at such a critical time is very strange.
The “third capital”
The answer to the question about the whereabouts of al-Baghdadi may be associated with his claim for the right to be the Caliph, or “leader of the faithful.”
According to religious law, with which not everyone agrees, the applicant may (among other criteria) to qualify for this title if it has “land to rule”.
Now the dimensions of this land are reduced. “Islamic state” has already almost defeated in Mosul and barely resists in raqqa — the de facto two capitals of the Islamic state in Iraq and Syria.
(To mark a symbolic moment in Iraq, militants blew up the historic mosque of al-Nouri in Mosul two weeks ago, before it came under the control of government forces).
Al-Baghdadi, probably hiding in the territory, which can be called the “third capital” — in the area controlled by the gang on both sides of the Syrian and Iraqi borders.
Jihadists call this area wilayat al-Furat, or the “Euphrates province”, which consists mainly of the Iraqi town of al-Kyme and the Syrian Abu Kamal.
In 2014, the success of the ISIS began with wilayat al-Furat and the surrounding areas. As claimed by the insurgents themselves — in the videos recently recorded in Anbar province in Iraq — they used the region as launching pad for their blitzkriegs in Iraq and Syria.
Also located in the region are relatively poorly armed militia and tribes that can keep and protect it if or when he is repulsed.
Even in the liberated areas, such as Ayr, Rutbah in the South of the country, the IG still made regular attacks.
Shelter in the desert
The campaign for the release of these outlying cities has not yet begun. The debate about who should lead the attack on the Syrian side of the US or the Syrian government and its allies, is still underway in Washington.
If the campaign will be the United States, questions still remain as to whether rebels or Kurds led by the “Syrian democratic forces” (SDF) to lead the fight.
In Iraq for Pro-government forces now are priority places such as the city of tall afar, West of Mosul.
Hisham al-Hashimi, Advisor to the government of Iraq and an expert on Iraqi jihadism groups, suggests that al-Baghdadi is likely hiding in wilayate al-Furat.
Over the past two years, the government of Iraq has carried out several air strikes on Abu Kamal. According to Hashimi, Iyad al-Jamila, one of the closest aides of al-Baghdadi, was discovered in this Syrian city.
A number of other close associates of the leader of ISIS was also seen in the Abu Kamala and Meladine is another key to group town in the Syrian province of Deir AZ-Zaur, said Hashimi.
Wilayat al-Furat — the only remaining region where ISIS can claim to be “land for the Board”.
The preparation campaign for the liberation of the region may take many months, and still need more time for it. Even after the liberation of these areas the IG will probably be to use the desert valleys of the rivers and border zones as shelters and carry out attacks on the city.
Most wanted
Al-Baghdadi, unlike other jihadist leaders have a tendency to appear in public or speak to the people only when it is absolutely necessary — as it was with the announcement of a Caliphate and a call to fight for Mosul.
The higher in the hierarchy of the command IG is a man, the stronger his social circle is limited to a small number of loyal supporters.
Therefore, only a few people know the whereabouts of al-Baghdadi. It is very difficult task for the special forces of the United States, constantly monitoring any clues that may lead to the most wanted man in the world.
The border areas of Syria and Iraq is a relatively safe and familiar al-Baghdadi lands, where it can successfully hide and suppress any attempts to capture or kill yourself.
They also give him the opportunity to continue to assert himself as the leader of the faithful.
Hassan Hassan — researcher at the Institute for near East policy “Tahrir” in Washington, co-author of the book “the Islamic state: Army of terror.”