As the crisis has changed the lives of Russians: seven key trends

As the crisis has changed the lives of Russians: seven key trends

Because of the crisis, the Russians cut spending, many have begun to grow fruits and vegetables in suburban areas. According to economists, a new job, the impoverished Russians looking for rare, and also rarely invest in education.

The Russians on the background of the crisis are very passive: they do not seek more promising work and not trying to change their financial situation, but simply more reduce costs, said experts of the Institute for social analysis and forecasting Ranhigs.

Russia also returned to the era of private farming, sure Institute Director Tatyana Maleva. Similar is observed for the first time since the 1990-ies. Now the garden plots again became for Russians a source of food and additional income.

Maleva and her colleagues presented the final report on how the crisis has affected the population of Russia last year.

Russian service Bi-bi-si has made available a report by scientists from the most interesting trends.

Recovery after the crisis will take years

In 2016, real disposable cash incomes of Russians decreased by 5.9%. Salaries are increased only by 0.7% after falling almost 10% in 2015.

“Fall to 10% — this significantly hurt the Russian economy, and most importantly — for the Russian workers,” explained Maleva.

“A slight increase” in wages in the last year could not compensate for the collapse of revenues, the company informed. Such slow growth, according to Maleva, will last long. In the coming years, the salary will grow by about 1.5−2% annually.

To compensate for the fall of 2015 may take a few years. Malev drew a parallel with the 1990-ies, when the compensation costs fall took two decades.

“After your income drops by 10%, few people are satisfied with recovery to 2%,” she said.

Malev within a few decades of studying the Russian labor market, incomes, poverty and other social problems. It is considered one of the leading experts on these issues in Russia. Institute for social analysis and forecasting, which she heads, released on a regular basis monitoring the socio-economic situation and well-being of the population. The experts of the Institute used the statistics of Rosstat and the results of their surveys.

Data experts and Rosstat say that the crisis in Russia has not ended: wage growth remains slow, incomes are falling and there are signs of a slowdown in the informal sector.

This is somewhat contrary to the opinion of Russian officials, who in General speak about the end of the crisis. In mid may the President of Russia Vladimir Putin has declared that incomes are recovering from the crisis.

In early April the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin said that the Russian economy entered a new stage of growth. Statements about the end of the crisis repeatedly made and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

Pensioners are the main victims of the crisis

If in 2015 the income has fallen due to a sharp reduction in wages, in 2016 this was mainly due to a decline in real pensions. According to the report of the Ranepa, in the past year, pensions in real terms declined by 3.4%. The main reason for this is the government’s decision not to conduct a full, but only partial indexation of pensions.

The decision on a one-time payment of 5 thousand roubles has only led to a sharp increase in pensions in January of this year and a sharp drop in February.

“40 million pensioners — is a significant part of the population” — like Malev.

Further dynamics of rates will depend on political decisions, and they are difficult to predict, says the economist.

For example, the government says that it is not necessary to index pensions to working pensioners. However, according to the research, Ranepa, working pensioners — people who receive small pensions and low salaries. These two payments, according to the economist, and brings them to a livable level of income. The decision that the pensions to working pensioners will not be indexed, a serious blow to their position.

If a family of such pensioner is a man who for some reason are not working, the family will be below the poverty line, says the economist.

Last year, 13.5% of Russian households were among the poor. Their income was below the subsistence minimum. This is the highest percentage in the last 10 years.

The Russians passively waiting for the end of the crisis and save

Russians are very passive about this crisis: they are not trying to change their financial situation, and just wait until the difficulty will end.

“Of all the models of adaptation is dominated by only one passive, that is, people reduce their spending,” says Malev.

According to her, men do nothing to change their situation — for example, there are almost no cases that the Russians began to invest in education and tried to obtain the best place on the labour market.

And if earlier people were waiting for that crisis here-here will end, but now they are increasingly beginning to realize that the exit is not expected.

Less room to maneuver

The passivity of Russians Maleva explains that opportunities to change their financial situation and make some kind of maneuver people became much less.

“This is not a lazy population he institutional capacity was an order of magnitude less,” says Malev.

According to her, Russia’s economy enters a period of prolonged weak growth, and the current crisis is not similar to the previous one: in 2009-2010, the decline was quickly replaced by a sharp increase. The current situation is reminiscent of the 1990-ies, when the population had to develop a new long-term strategy of behavior because of the crisis, says the economist.

But then, according to Maleva, opportunities were more people. “The market was just formed private enterprise sector, there were created new jobs,” she explains.

In the 1990s, those who were willing to show labor mobility or to improve their competence, could move from one sector to another. Then formed the informal employment sector in which people could escape from poverty and social bottom, like an economist.

However, this process is now ended, and the informal sector had ceased to be a “safety cushion”.

In the 1990s, years created jobs in the NPO sector, but he now lives mostly due to budget. Great hopes were pinned, then the small business now but it is not developing as quickly.

According to experts, in the current situation their own population nothing can not do, we need institutional reforms.

Subsistence farming as a cure for the crisis

According to Malev in Russia for the first time since the 1990-ies started active use of private farming is a different garden plots, where the summer fruit and vegetables. This gives the Russians of food and additional income.

Malev admitted that this development she did not expect, because a few years ago, the Russians generally prefer to decorate personal plots of grass.

The informal sector in crisis

In April, real disposable incomes fell by 7.6% in annual terms. According to Malev, it’s unexpected. One reason for this sharp drop may be due to the changes to the methodology of Rosstat.

According to Malev, it may also be associated with the informal sector — a sector which is not reflected in the statistics and where the salary is paid under grey schemes. Perhaps the drop in income due to reduced income in the informal sector. According to her, there is no way that the formal sector has decreased and informal while growing up.

On the decline in the informal sector and indicates the reduction of retail trade. “If the money in the country, they would have come in the consumer sector,” she explains. The fall in retail trade suggests that money from the people there, and employers in the informal sector reduces wages — and faster than in the formal.

People fear losing their jobs

Most of the crisis, people are afraid of losing their jobs, says Malev. This was in February 2017 was reported by 44.7% of respondents surveyed experts Ranepa.

The other main fear of the Russians — the reduction of wages, but it is somewhat on the decline: in February of 2016 was afraid of 51% of respondents, in February 2017 — 45,9%. Maleva explains that salaries have fallen, so people are less worried about it.

Fears among Russians as was the delay of salaries, the transition to incomplete working week and Babysitting on unpaid leave.