S & amp; P: slow rates of vaccination are the main risk for the Russian economy developing countries in general. This opinion was expressed by Tatyana Lysenko, a leading economist for emerging markets in the EMEA macro-region (Europe, Middle East, Africa) of the S&P Global Ratings, RBC reports.
According to the S&P report, as of early November 2021, only 33 percent of the population in Russia was fully vaccinated. The rating agency noted that this dynamic is due to the reluctance of citizens to get vaccinated. According to the government's operational headquarters for the fight against coronavirus, as of November 18, 39.7 percent of citizens are fully vaccinated, and the herd immunity level is 49 percent. At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova noted that to contain the pandemic, herd immunity must reach 90-95 percent.
The chief economist of Sber CIB, Anton Struchenevsky, is nevertheless not sure that an increase in the rate of vaccination will be a panacea for a pandemic. The expert called the risk that the concept of herd immunity would be questioned if vaccinated people were more likely to get sick with COVID-19. According to the economist, the pandemic will remain with humanity for more than two years.
According to S&P forecasts, the growth of the Russian economy by the end of 2021 will be four percent. This indicator is close to the data of the Ministry of Economic Development, which expects GDP growth at 4.2 percent. However, the rating agency estimates that the pace will slow to 2.6 percent in 2022, and then the economy will grow by two percent annually. These figures are below expectations of the government, which predicts growth of three percent. The GDP per capita indicator will stabilize within the range of 11-12 thousand dollars – this is still below the level of 2012. S&P associates its forecast of modest GDP growth in the long term with a shrinking labor force, the dominant role of the public sector in the economy, low competition and institutional flaws such as a low level of independence of the judiciary and selective application of the law.
At the same time, S&P predicts inflation stabilization in 2022. According to the agency's estimates, the 8% annualized price increase is the peak for Russia. Earlier in November, Rosstat reported that inflation in October accelerated to 8.13 percent in annual terms. The Central Bank predicts inflation at the end of 2021 at the level of 7.4-7.9 percent and expects that the rate of price growth will begin to decline in 2022.