Economist Korenev predicted a further fall in the ruble “Economist, analyst at FG” Finam “Alexey Korenev. The speed of this process, in his opinion, will depend on many unpredictable factors – the geopolitical situation, oil and gas prices, the situation with the coronavirus and others. It is the volatility in the foreign exchange market that explains the interest of Russians in the formation of dollar savings, the expert added.
Earlier, the Central Bank of Russia published materials stating that the aggregate demand of Russians for cash foreign currency in September 2021 was 4, $ 7 billion – 48 percent more than in August.
Long-term investment
According to Korenev, the growth in demand was due to the unexpected strengthening of the ruble, which made the long-term purchase of foreign currency more profitable.
“Few people buy foreign currency as a short-term investment: this is mainly done in order to form pension savings, a reserve for black day and so on. When the ruble began to strengthen against the dollar, at some point people realized that it would not fall below it, so many made a quite logical decision to sell their reserves of rubles and buy foreign currency, “the economist explained.
Historically, the ruble has always depreciated against the dollar, so the benefits of acquiring foreign currency, according to Korenev, were obvious. But what will happen next to the national currency over a short distance depends on a very large number of factors.
“The problem is that all of them are unpredictable. The ruble strengthened for almost a year, the weakening began only after problems began on the Polish-Belarusian border, when the United States began to accuse Russia of gathering troops on the Ukrainian border and a war was about to begin. The markets naturally reacted and the ruble began to fall in price. This reversal lasted for several days, as a result of which those who bought the currency last week are now in a decent profit, “Korenev concluded.
This week the dollar strengthened against the ruble, rising to 73.41 rubles for the first time since October 22. Experts associate the weakening of the Russian currency with the aggravation of the migration crisis on the border of Belarus and Poland. EU countries are considering the possibility of imposing sanctions against Russia.