Political scientist Kalachev: Putin will not help Lukashenko in resolving the migration crisis will help the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko in resolving the migration crisis. Rather, the expert said, Moscow will detach itself from the Union State so as not to become a hostage of the situation. Kalachev reported this to Lente.ru.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko previously held a telephone conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. During the conversation, politicians discussed key issues on the bilateral agenda, including the situation with migrants near the Polish border.
In particular, the leaders touched upon the topic of joint actions to defend the Union State against the background of events with a crowd of illegal migrants storming the Polish border … Another topic of conversation was the situation in Ukraine, as well as the exercises of Ukraine and the United States near the borders of Russia and in the Black Sea.
In the conversation, Lukashenko also told Putin about the discussion of the migration crisis with the interim German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In addition, the heads of state discussed the schedule of future contacts.
Putin will not play in favor of Lukashenka
Kalachev believes that Putin is not ready to be hostage to Lukashenka's actions. This is how the political scientist began his forecast regarding the possible intervention of Russia in the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border. “In this situation, Russia looks like a hostage to the actions of its ally. I suppose that Vladimir Vladimirovich is unlikely to be ready to run ahead of the locomotive and be more immersed in this issue than Lukashenka himself, ”the political scientist said.
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In his opinion, at the moment there is an opportunity for Russia to demonstrate restraint, responsibility and adequacy. “You can endlessly tinker with an ally who is inadequate in places, at times extremely inconvenient, but in this situation there is an opportunity to carefully build up and demonstrate our readiness to deal with humanitarian problems. The protection of the common border is important and it is not questioned, any military-technical assistance will be provided if necessary, but there is no need to aggravate it. Russia does not need to become hostages of Lukashenka’s policy, ”the political scientist commented.
Russia can help Belarus with humanitarian aid to refugees, but Minsk should not expect political support from Moscow, Kalachev said. “Solidarity with Lukashenka, who deliberately provoked the crisis, using migrants as a means of pressure on Poland specifically and on the West in general, does not need Russia. I don’t think Moscow doesn’t want aggravation now, ”the political scientist noted.
In his opinion, at present the Belarusian leader will put pressure on the need to protect the common border with Russia and will try to manipulate public opinion by emphasizing criticism of the West, mixing Russia with the migration crisis, thereby rooting the idea of a certain role for Moscow in this conflict. However, as Kalachev added, Putin will not want to allow Western countries to think that Russia is an active participant in this crisis. “We are already credited with organizing this crisis, and Lukashenka is only a tool here. So there is no need to confirm what, on the contrary, needs to be refuted. Russia has nothing to do with the migration crisis, Lukshenko here acts at his own peril and risk. Probably, behind closed doors, Putin can ask him to behave more carefully and calm down, ”the political scientist suggested.
The telephone talks between Lukashenka and Merkel took place on November 15. According to Lukashenko, the first topic of the talks was the migration crisis and the situation on the border of Belarus. The Belarusian leader said that he “made a proposal to resolve the situation.” At the same time, he said that in the current situation there can be no claims to Minsk.
The migration crisis on the border of Belarus with Poland and Lithuania escalated in November. Crowds of migrants have gathered near the cordons of the republics, some of them periodically make an attempt to break through to the territory of the European Union.