German Gref: Tighter monetary policy could lead to a crisis in a number of countries According to him, the tightening of monetary policy by leading financial regulators can lead to this in a number of countries, but it remains unclear to what extent this is a systemic risk. His words are quoted by RIA Novosti.
“There are such risks. Someone may suffer, but the question is how systemic this risk is, “he commented and added that so far rates are growing only in nominal terms.
In September, the Russian Central Bank included the possibility of the onset of the global financial crisis in 2023, which can be comparable in scale to the crisis of 2008-2009. The reason may be the growth of the global debt of states and corporations.
The mechanism, as noted by the regulator, may be as follows: the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will sharply tighten credit policy, and investors will immediately start getting rid of risky securities papers. If this situation is aggravated by a drop in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel, Russia is threatened with a 1.4-2.4 percent drop in the economy.
In turn, the head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market Anatoly Aksakov said that the world the financial crisis will come in a couple of years if the world's central banks do not respond to the growing financial bubbles. According to him, nothing foreshadows an imminent catastrophe, but in the future, such a danger remains. The MP noted that the lack of a decisive response from the Fed may push the process.