Political scientist Bolkunets: the migration crisis in Belarus will end in bloodshed at the border other government officials to put pressure on Europe, said political analyst Dmitry Bolkunets. In a conversation with “Lenta.ru” he said that, most likely, this format of a hybrid special operation will end in bloodshed at the border. He also did not rule out the likelihood of terrorist attacks and noted that Lukashenka is planning a military hybrid operation against Poland.
Earlier on November 8, a column of people walking along the highway near the Polish-Belarusian border was captured on video. Presumably, this is a crowd of illegal migrants heading from Belarus to Poland.
Blackmail and bloodshed
Bolkunets is sure: the hybrid migration crisis, which began in the summer, was created artificially, by the forces of the top leadership of Belarus, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, special services, carriers. In his opinion, Lukashenka decided to take such a step, trying to force neighboring states to negotiate with him.
“Lukashenka chose the tactics of blackmail,” the political scientist believes. – We see a huge flow of migrants, about a thousand people, moving to the border. This is how Lukashenka shows that he is ready to aggravate, and with the use of not only quantitative force: I suppose that terrorist attacks may occur on the border, especially taking into account the fact that there are already such stuffing from the Belarusian side. The President is planning a military hybrid operation against Poland, he wants to unleash a military conflict with NATO. ”
In addition, according to the political scientist, Lukashenko would like to persuade Moscow to participate in this conflict. In part, according to him, this is already happening, this is indicated by the words of the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova, who says that the EU needs to negotiate with the head of Belarus.
“All this will end with Europe adopting another package of sanctions against Lukashenka regarding the migration crisis. It seems to me that the President of Belarus is perceived in the West as a madman, so no country will negotiate with him. The only exception is Austria, which turns a blind eye to the criminal actions of the Belarusian authorities and political prisoners. She simply pursues her own selfish interests associated with capital and business on the territory of the state. Lukashenka, in turn, is happy to use his impunity, hoping that the migration crisis will make it possible to achieve concessions from the EU, “Bolkunets suggested.
He concluded that now Lukashenka is calculating all possible steps, hoping to achieve world recognition. But the political scientist is sure: these calculations are wrong, by his actions the head of state only worsens the prospects for himself and his entourage. The migration crisis, in his opinion, will end in bloodshed on the Belarusian-Polish border.
The migration crisis on the eastern border of the European Union began in May 2021. Large groups of migrants from the Middle East and Africa began to massively violate the Polish-Lithuanian border from Belarus. Vilnius and Warsaw stepped up border patrols and urgently began building a barbed wire fence. The governments of these countries accuse Minsk and even Moscow of deliberately escalating the migration crisis.