Another breakdown of the agreements and attempt by force to influence the situation in the region turned out for APU in a complete collapse. Collecting the corpses and flush the blood with armored vehicles, a Ukrainian military retreated from whence he came. Experts meanwhile point out that the political agreements and trying somehow to keep the peace the administration Poroshenko does not need to lead to feelings of APU will only another “pot”.
Blind observers
International monitoring mission of the OSCE, which so many hopes, finally acknowledged his own helplessness. Joked about by international observers for a long time. Like, you see only what is profitable to show to the European public, and the point lowered. Representatives of the OSCE, PACE and other public and political entities for a long time “was in denial”, they say, slander detractors in light of the European organization. However, the essence of the work “observation” mission told the world not the Russian media, which our European colleagues are often accused of bias, and not even the news agencies DND and LNR, who were among the first to inform the world about the next round of conflict. Blind inspectors near Ukrainian tanks on the front lines in Avdiivka was captured by an employee of the BBC, reporter Tom Burridge. Experts and analysts began to wonder, what do international observers in the area of concentration of the Ukrainian military and armored vehicles. Almost immediately the “observers” of the OSCE recalled a similar situation nine years ago, very similar to the current “good neighborhood” with the Ukrainian troops.
Formally neutral status of the observation mission was nearly crumbled into dust along with the remnants of the Georgian army in 2008. Then, after the aggression of Georgia against South Ossetia and the start of the operation to force Georgia to peace forces of the Russian army, international observers de facto helped the Georgian military. After the Georgian military was destroyed and the survivors fled in one of the briefings of the chief of General staff of armed forces Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said that the OSCE observers knew about the preparation of a military invasion, but deliberately concealed this information.
“At the initial stage of the conflict to the OSCE there is a claim. They were notified the Georgian side that would be an invasion, but the Russian peacekeepers not warned,” – said Nogovitsin.
It is worth noting that after this, the press has repeatedly appeared information, according to which detailed data and reports of the weapons inspectors were later discovered by Russian troops on the Georgian base at Gori. It is quite natural that neither then, nor even now, the leaders of the OSCE did not confirm and does not confirm the fact of close cooperation with the military. In connection with the publication of the controversial video, where the inspectors are having a conversation with the Ukrainian military, the question arises, in whose interests is actually working for the OSCE. Although the issue was by and large rhetorical. With regard to the admission Supervisory mission to pour artillery shells Donetsk and documentation of crimes of the Ukrainian army – it is delicate for the European citizens too dangerous, and the eyes it can close. War, after all.
One meter of land
Tactics APU on the promotion of inland territories of LNR and DNR in the years that the conflict has changed slightly. Mainly on the use of “point of escalation” was affected by several factors. First, and most important – the revaluation of its own forces. Ukrainian generals, the head of the country and command at different levels allowed a number of strategic mistakes in the management of troops, which is well armed and provided with the rights to the killing of civilians, the military began to perish from the fire of the Donetsk and Lugansk militias. The second argument in favor of abandoning full-scale attacks – properly “brewed” boilers.
Although reliable data on how many volunteers, nationalists and militants of the banned in Russia “Right sector” were killed in the environment, experts are of the opinion that only izvarinskij, Ilovaisk, Debaltsevo boilers, and battles for the airports of Donetsk and Lugansk were killed about 30 thousand people. Nearly a third of all of the APU in the South-East. Gradually realizing that the pace of the militia “mow” the entire Ukrainian army in the armed forces decide not to risk it. Political scientists and military experts explain that the “creeping” tactics in this case to use the most convenient. A massive breakthrough in one direction, a momentary hateful violation of Kiev Minsk agreements and further conversation with the position kind of had to take. In such a scenario were to pass the recent breakthroughs in the area of Debaltsevo and “focal” fighting on other fronts. Each such trip costs the Ukrainian military more expensive. Casualties for each day of breakthrough can reach hundreds, and the equipment and other military supplies and issued in the gift of the Donetsk and Lugansk military.
“The wind changes” and for the Ukrainian authorities. The change of President in USA, political changes in Europe affect the nerve of the President Poroshenko direct military-monetary way. Mindless multimillion-dollar infusions to do is stopped talking about loans “the needs of democracy.” If the Ukrainian regime will continue to knock out money from Europe and the United States, it is not excluded that the APU can take the offensive across the front line. Unfortunately, the prerequisites for this is to front line pulled heavy artillery, which can quickly transfer the desired area. The element of surprise can take the advantage of the militants natsbatov who are actively preparing for combat operations, while in the plant.
The Deputy commander of the operational headquarters DND Eduard Bacurin announced the placement of 10 companies of infantry, 15 tanks, 20 BMP and 16 mortars APU. Experts say that before you go on break, the Ukrainian artillery a few days is Ironing residential neighborhoods, and only then the Ukrainian army could begin the offensive. If the worst scenario of development of events still to be contested, political decisions such a fire will not be extinguished. Commenting on the TV channel “Star” the situation with the escalation of the conflict in the Donbass, the political scientist Anton Khashchenko noted that, despite the gravity of the situation, full-scale fighting on both sides will seriously aggravate the situation in the region, and benefits, primarily political risks to the regime in Kiev.
“It is obvious that the escalation of the situation in the Donbass today is the best first of all to Kiev, which is trying again to shake public opinion in the West and to obtain political support to Ukraine: cold Western elites. In fact, this is another provocation Poroshenko the cost of new victims. However, judging by the absence of any clearly articulated reactions from the European bureaucrats in the EU are well aware of that,” said Khashchenko.
Boiler for APU
It is important to understand that, despite the increased combat readiness of the armed DNR and LNR military, too, without business did not sit. According to those who stand on the front lines, as well as those who analyze the conflict in the Donbass, any violation of the Minsk agreements and attempts to continue the genocide of peaceful population in the absence of other options, will again be treated boilers. Of course, no one is considering a full-scale offensive on Kiev in all directions – it is the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk to anything. We are talking about simple-offensives, during which it is possible in the months ahead to stop the looming threat and to enforce the peace agreement for the Ukrainian military. By the way, the stupidity of Ukrainian politicians and military generals of the LC and the DNI once treated in the boilers in different directions, and continue to do so until now, albeit with a few differences. However hack Ukrainian aggression, if it comes to the great war, the first will is not Donetsk or Luhansk military. Surprisingly, experts are increasingly inclined to believe that the latter will fly the head of Poroshenko and his closest associates, including General and “is responsible for the ATO.”
The executioners of the President and those who unleashed the genocide of their own people, are the same forces that previously supported the military coup and widespread violence. Many have already noticed a significant geopolitical changes have already occurred in the United States no longer talking about the unanimous support of Ukraine, and especially not comment on the statements of Ukrainian politicians about the war with Russia, and the European media and then blamed for the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, Poroshenko and his team. Professor of political science, doctor of political Sciences Andrey manoylo in interview to TV channel “Star” said that simultaneously with cutting off the political support of the Kiev regime can be implemented and the use of force to resolve the problem.
“In a normal, viable option is to go deep into enemy territory 15-30 miles, to destroy the retreating gang of nationalists, to burn all the artillery that day and night shelling civilians, and then to move to the previous line of demarcation,” said manoylo.
In this scenario can be solved several problems at once. First, political supporters of Poroshenko and the President himself-the pretender will understand that the power to resolve the issue with the South-East is impossible. Secondly, and most valuable, from the constant attacks cease to suffer the ordinary residents of Donbass will gradually return to civilian life. Thirdly, will end the bloody adventure of the Kiev military. Politicians and the public, supporting the “war against separable”, finally understand that before you sit down at the negotiating table, one must first cease fire and to lay aside the weapon and only then try to negotiate.
Author: Dmitry Yurov
Photo: mil.gov.ua, mcalife007 / Instagram, Senkar Tomas / Globallookpress, Sergii Kharchenko / Globallookpress