Expert: in Russia, the daily increase in patients with covid by February 1 may reach 65 thousand

A group of researchers led by Zakharov has developed a mathematical model of CIR (Confirmed cases, Infected, Removed – English “confirmed cases”, “infected”, “excluded” – recovered or deceased), which, due to new methods of predicting future values of its parameters, makes it possible to more accurately predict the spread of coronavirus for up to a month. In October, the authors presented data on the effectiveness of the model in the scientific journal “Informatics and Automation”.

“Our model predicts that by February 1, the number of newly detected daily cases of coronavirus infection in┬áRussia may reach 65 thousand. At the same time, the total number of identified cases will exceed the threshold of 11.5 million people,” the scientist told TASS.

He also noted that, according to calculations, by February 1, the number of people simultaneously suffering from covid in the country will reach 1 million people. Today, the number of so-called active cases is 623,599, the scientist said.

“The rate of morbidity growth may well continue until mid-February. In this case, in the middle of the second decade of February, the number of new cases per day may exceed 110 thousand, and the number of active cases of the disease will reach the level of 1 million 800 thousand. After that, the growth in the number of new cases of the disease will slow down or the daily incidence will begin to decrease,” Zakharov concluded.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, about 326.2 million people have been infected with coronavirus in the world, more than 5.5 million have died. In Russia, according to the federal operational headquarters for the fight against coronavirus, 10,803,534 cases of infection were registered, 9,858,615 people recovered, 321,320 died.

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