Doctor of Military Sciences Sivkov: if a war starts in Armenia, Russia will defend it 
military actions and Azerbaijan will invade its territory, Russia, according to the Collective Security Treaty, will have to defend the country, said Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov. In a conversation with Lenta.ru, he added that a provocation option aimed at drawing Russia into an open confrontation is not ruled out.
Earlier, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that on November 14, Azerbaijani troops invaded the country at one of the sections of the border.
You can wait for anything
Sivkov noted that at the moment it is necessary to wait for further information in order to understand exactly where the emergency occurred.
“If Azerbaijani troops really invaded the territory of Armenia, the country will have to submit a request to the CSTO, and Russia will come out in its defense. But you also need to understand what exactly happened and in what territory, ”the expert noted. According to him, if the speech is about the fact that Azerbaijan occupied some territories in the Syunik region, then “this issue has existed for a long time.”
“But Pashinyan has not said anything on this topic yet. In any case, you can expect anything from him, ”the expert added.
Sivkov recalled that Pashinyan is a figure “charged with the United States,” therefore it is possible that what is happening is an attempt to unleash the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict with the inclusion of Russia in it. Such a scenario would be beneficial to the Prime Minister himself personally, since a military conflict would help him to write off his own internal economic failures.
“I do not exclude that some conflicts will start with the participation of Georgia, other provocations are also possible. It is not necessary, of course, all this will happen, but such a possibility cannot be completely ruled out either. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is also under pressure from Turkey and the United States, he can easily ignite the conflict, and Pashinyan will gladly play along with him, “Sivkov concluded.
On September 27, 2020, battles began on the contact line between Azerbaijan and the NKR … The parties accused each other of provocation. In November of the same year, the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan adopted a ceasefire statement. As a result of the war, Baku regained control of part of the territories lost in the 1990s.