Climatic Change: Climate Change Threats Africa to Water Depletion Doomsday, like the one that occurred in South Africa in 2018, is 5-6 times more likely. As the researchers warn in an article published in the journal Climatic Change, in regions with arid climates, weather events that threaten water resources will become much more frequent.
Due to the catastrophic drought in 2018 and the depletion of reservoirs, Cape Town residents switch to water saving in order to postpone the so-called “Zero Day”, when the city will no longer have access to drinking water. To predict such events in the future, scientists have modeled changes in seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation in the 21st century in Africa.
In a scenario in which countries do not make any effort to meet climate change mitigation targets, there are 50 -percentage probability that mid-century temperatures in western, central and southern Africa will be three times higher than the current range of variability. At the same time, the risk of a decrease in precipitation is 3-4 times higher than the risk of a spontaneous increase in precipitation.
If the targets of the Paris Agreement on curbing the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius are achieved, the risks for South Africa will be delayed by 30 years, which will give the country the opportunity to prepare for droughts. Otherwise, it will be necessary to take urgent measures to save water consumption in order to prevent the onset of “Zero Days”, which will occur more often.