Economist Kulbak: serious inflationary surges will slow down by the end of 2022 
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of RANEPA Nikolai Kulbak named the forecast of the head of Sberbank Herman about world stagflation is quite real. According to the economist, which he gave in an interview with Lenta.ru, by the end of 2022, all serious inflationary surges will slow down.
Earlier in an interview with RIA Novosti, German Gref said that the risk of stagflation, that is, a situation when an economic recession or stagnation is accompanied by a rise in prices, is small in the world. The banker said that the main reason for the acceleration of inflation was the outstripping expectation of a global economic recovery. By about June 2022, the international market will adapt to new conditions, Gref assured. In his opinion, as a result of this, the dynamics of prices will normalize.
The banker named the reasons for the current inflation. Among other things, the head of Sberbank noted the disruption of technological chains due to the pandemic, a sharp increase in demand for chips, as well as difficult climatic conditions and a general rise in energy prices, which contribute to higher prices for agricultural products.
The forecast is correct
The economies of different countries and regions are unevenly recovering from the crisis, Kulbaka said. This is the reason for the surges in inflation. “Here I absolutely agree with German Oskarovich [Gref]. When the economy begins to recover from the crisis, it is usually accompanied by higher inflation, because the demand for goods and services begins to grow. This process should end in an amicable way somewhere in the middle of the year, if the economy comes out of the crisis, “- said the associate professor of economic sciences.
He noted that Gref spoke correctly about the worries about the world economy. “He's absolutely right. Nowadays there is no need to worry about inflation, in particular world inflation. That is, it is not necessary to speak of a scenario when stagflation occurs in the world, that is, when we are experiencing stagnation and inflation at the same time, it is not necessary, this will not happen. Inflation will gradually calm down, especially since in most countries central banks are pursuing a fairly competent monetary policy, “Kulbaka explained.
Taking into account what is happening today, it can be assumed that by the end of 2022, all serious inflationary surges will slow down, he added … Not everywhere at the same pace and not in all markets at once, the economist noted, but a decrease in tension in the global economy can be expected already starting from the middle of next year.
Earlier, German Gref assessed the risk of a new global crisis. According to him, the tightening of monetary policy by leading financial regulators may lead to this in a number of countries, but it remains unclear to what extent this is a systemic risk.