Virologists interviewed by Izvestia believe that the appearance of the Omicron strain could be key to the entire history of COVID-19 if this variety turns out to be the mutation that will bring the epidemic to naught. According to medical forecasts, this process can take up to a year.
So, Alexander Butenko, head of the Department of the N. F. Gamalei National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology of the Ministry of Health of Russia, said. that the end date of the pandemic will depend on two factors: the immune layer of the population and the mutagenicity of the virus.
“We see that COVID-19, like other coronaviruses, has a high mutation capacity. The longer the pandemic lasts, the more the virus mutates. But such processes do not always lead to an increase in the pathogenicity of the virus, sometimes they work to weaken it. Science has known cases of deprivation of the properties of the pathogenicity of the virus as a result of mutations. It is possible that COVID-19 will follow the same scenario,” the expert noted.
The pandemic will continue next year, but the climax is likely to be passed, so 2022 should be less dramatic in terms of the number of deaths and infections, according to Pavel Volchkov, head of the MIPT genomic Engineering laboratory.
According to him, the strains will continue to mutate, but now the danger lies in the fact that it is not entirely clear how the virus will behave when all restrictions in China are lifted.
“There, as you remember, a self-isolation regime was introduced from the very start of the pandemic, so they basically only have vaccine immunity. Nevertheless, I believe that the peak has already been passed, and then we will go to a gradual decrease in the activity of the coronavirus. The year 2022 will still be full of covid events, but not to the same extent as 2021,” the expert noted.