Economists appreciated the initiative of Sergei Glazyev to introduce export duties analogue of the government for the Eurasian Economic Union, EAEU) Sergey Glazyev proposed to fight inflation with the help of export duties on all commodities. The interlocutors of Lenta.ru appreciated this measure and came to the conclusion that it is unlikely to have the expected impact on the rise in prices in the country.
According to Glazyev, a return to the measures that were used in Russia in the 1990s – the introduction of export duties – would be effective. “It seems to me that the best way would be to protect our economy from an inflationary wave from abroad – to use the instrument that we actively used in 1992-1993 – to introduce export duties on commodities that are subject to price inflation,” he noted. Glazyev. The funds raised in the budget can be used for targeted investment programs, in particular, dedicated to the development of import substitution, the EEC Minister is sure. This will increase the supply on the domestic market and reduce prices.
Professor of the Russian School of Economics (NES) Oleg Shibanov considers such a measure to be inconsistent with the current macroeconomic realities and draws attention to the fact that Russia already has export duties on some goods, primarily on hydrocarbons and products from them, as well as on agricultural crops.
We swam, we know
“From the point of view of introducing additional duties, the whole question is why. The fact is that, for example, for gasoline, if it turns out to be unprofitable for sale in Russia, there is a so-called tax damper, which allows you to adjust this price and actually returns part of the funds to oil and gas – more oil, of course. Therefore, in the current realities, additional export duties may turn out to be, on the one hand, temporarily restraining, on the other hand, the medium-term effects will have to be taken into account, “Shibanov notes.
In agriculture, according to him, the export duties introduced several months ago have already had an effect. “The question is that in two years, we may stop sowing wheat fields, which presupposes just this export duty. And they will only sow flax, which is temporarily non-taxable, “says the economist.
Then, when flax is also taxed, they will sow rice, which, perhaps, grows worse in our country than elsewhere. And we will be left with rice, which grows poorly, but can be exported to international markets
Oleg Shibanov, NES professor
“It seems to me that if you collect a set of measures that the government has already introduced, they can generally correspond to what Sergei Yuryevich [Glazyev] is proposing even in the current version without the need for additional duties,” Shibanov believes.
Let's beat our own < p>In turn, Anna Kokoreva, a leading analyst at the Coface export credit insurance company, believes that the widespread introduction of export duties on raw materials will only create additional difficulties for their producers, while having little effect on price increases. Inflation, she said, is now largely global and depends on the ruble.
If we, for example, increase the export duty on oil or coal – diapers, French perfumes and Sony TVs in production will not start in the country
Anna Kokorev lead analyst at Coface
“And those goods that were imported will remain so. And these will be just those goods that are not particularly influenced by raw materials. Which rise in price primarily due to the weakening of the ruble. The main rise in prices in our country is now happening just for imported goods. It will not work to curb inflation on sausage and carrots by raising duties, ”she adds, specifying that commodity producers are the country's largest taxpayers.
The reference to the 1990s used by the Glazyevs is also difficult to call correct, says Oleg Shibanov from NES. “If we mean the Russian 1990s, namely their beginning, then we, as you know, inflation was somewhere in the four-digit, and somewhere in the three-digit and at the peak was about 2600 percent in annual terms. When you have such inflation, you probably already pay less attention to export duties in order to regulate prices and pay more attention to them to replenish the budget, ”he says.
The current situation is significantly different from what it was almost 30 years ago, continues the financier. “Because we still have a successful federal budget, it is in surplus this year, we have a fairly low inflation. And in this regard, point decisions on individual sectors can, again, be adopted, and the government is already making them. Therefore, dear Sergei Yuryevich [Glazyev] is undoubtedly right in his proposals. But the question is whether they will provide additional benefits now. This needs to be checked, and I think the government will do it, ”Shibanov concludes.
Appreciate what we have
According to Anna Kokoreva from Coface, the government should not look for fundamentally new approaches in the fight against inflation, limiting itself to the monetary policy of the Central Bank and its main instruments: the key rate and the required reserve ratio for banks (the amount of funds reserved by banks in accounts with the Central Bank, from which they cannot issue loans – approx. “Lenta.ru” ). “In addition to the methods already existing and used by the Central Bank, only the transition to a planned economy comes to mind. But we have been living in a market and commerce environment for quite some time, ”says the analyst.
We are not China or the Soviet Union. I personally cannot propose any other measures at the moment
Anna Kokorevshead analyst at Coface
Currently, Russia applies export duties on oil, gas, petroleum products, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, as well as wheat, corn and barley. The principle of operation of the export duty involves a reduction in the supply of certain goods abroad due to their reduced profitability, an increase in supply in the domestic market and a further decrease in prices.
Sergei Glazyev, who previously worked as an adviser to the president, minister of foreign economic relations and headed several political parties , is known for its controversial economic initiatives. In particular, over the years, he proposed not to return loans to American banks due to Washington's sanctions, abandon the use of the dollar, limit the export of capital from Russia, freeze the ruble exchange rate and prices for consumer goods, and also abandon the “doctrine of market capitalism.” None of the ideas have been implemented to date.