One hundred percent compliance with the mask regime in Moscow would reduce the number of new cases of coronavirus infection to 220 per day by December 31. This is indicated by calculations based on the mathematical model of the Institute of Information Transmission Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences. However, even a completely realistic scenario, in which 50% of Muscovites wear masks, can reduce the number of new cases of the disease to several hundred by the beginning of February next year, calculations have shown. In order for the use of personal protective equipment to change the course of the epidemic, most people need not only to take precautions, but also to do it properly, experts stressed.
In wearing mode
A leading researcher at the Institute of Information Transmission Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences and a developer of a mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 in In Moscow, Alexander Sokolov calculated at the request of Izvestia how the number of cases in the city will change depending on what proportion of residents will wear medical masks.
If the indicator is 100%, by December 31, the number of new cases of coronavirus per day in the capital will decrease to 220, and soon it will fall to zero, calculations showed.
However, it is possible to defeat the pandemic fairly quickly if 90% of Muscovites wear masks, the simulation showed. Then zero new infections will be achieved by February 1, 2022. If 50% of Muscovites wear masks, then on December 31, 1.4 thousand cases will be identified, the model predicted.
The calculations were made in accordance with official data on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the capital until mid-December: the number of new cases per day, the rate of vaccination, the number of daily tests, and so on. The model also includes such parameters as the regularity of contacts between citizens, the level of migration and other significant factors. It is also taken into account that the Delta strain dominates in the city.
If the “Omicron” option becomes predominant in Moscow, the model will probably offer to wear masks longer in order to nullify the pandemic. The specific timing will depend on the degree of contagiousness of the new strain and the effectiveness of vaccines against it, which are still unknown.