Financier Babin: a serious deterioration in the geopolitical situation does not lead to a fall in the ruble the collapse of the ruble amid November, which was unsuccessful for the Russian currency. Over the past month, it dropped to ninth place from second in the ranking of 36 world currencies against the US dollar, reports the Prime agency.
The financier recalled that in addition to the geopolitical situation, the ruble was under pressure, including a drop in oil prices due to the threat of a new strain of coronavirus. In addition, the acceleration of the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) is a negative factor for all markets. The American regulator may raise US interest rates earlier than expected.
Also, the surge in inflation is forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy, while the coronavirus pandemic calls for softer monetary decisions. Thus, the preconditions for the weakening of the ruble remain, Babin noted, but the dollar exchange rate is unlikely to reach 85 rubles by the New Year. For this, the main risks should go according to the most negative scenario, but even in this case, the reserves of the Central Bank and the National Wealth Fund will keep the Russian currency from rapid devaluation.
“Also, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance have other tools to prevent unnecessary decline ruble and market destabilization in general. Therefore, even a significant deterioration in the external background or geopolitical situation is unlikely to lead to a strong depreciation of the Russian currency, “the economist concluded.
Earlier it became known that in November, world oil prices fell by 20 percent for the first time since March 2020 … At the end of November 30, the cost of February futures for Brent amounted to $ 69.6 per barrel, and January WTI reached $ 66.18.
Experts suggest that quotes have collapsed due to a new omicron strain of coronavirus. If confirmed, the world will face severe restrictions and falling demand for energy.