Experts from Otkritie and Finam banks linked the Rusnano crisis to the undermining of confidence in Russia 
The state investment company Rusnano paid off the coupon and redeemed unsecured state-guaranteed bonds of the BO-002R-01 series, which belong mainly to private investors, for a total amount of 4.7 billion rubles. Until the end of the year, Rusnano will have to pay interest on four more issues totaling a little less than 1.1 billion rubles. In a conversation with Lenta.ru, experts from leading Russian banks said that the Rusnano crisis could undermine investor confidence not only in state corporations, but also in the state debt and Russian business in general.
In November, Rusnano announced that it had accumulated a disproportionate debt in 2021 and is considering the possibility of its restructuring. In this statement, the market saw the threat of default, and on November 19, the Central Bank ordered the Moscow Exchange to stop trading in the company's securities. When the bonds started trading again, their value fell 13 percent to 87 percent of par. As of December 1, securities are worth even less – 70.5 percent of par.
The stakes are high
Deputy Director of the Investment Business Department of Otkritie Bank Evgeny Ananiev told Lente.ru that the latest developments in Rusnano »Can make it impossible for young companies to issue bonds and raise money through the exchange. If the state does not fulfill its obligations, then investors have no motives to trust domestic startups, the expert believes.
“The market perceived this situation negatively. This precedent may complicate the entry of a certain category of companies into the market, whose business may have relatively weak traditional credit metrics, but at the same time rely on the expectations of future budget, tariff or other flows controlled by the state, “the expert said.
Alexey Kovalev, an analyst with the investment company Finam, agrees that the crisis of confidence in state-owned companies associated with Rusnano will spread to the entire Russian stock market.
The state, on the one hand, complains that the economy lacks long money [long-term borrowing], the bond market is not developed, there are few high-quality issuers, and on the other hand, he declares that his 100% daughter is not ready to fully meet its obligations. After all, now any issuer can potentially ask the question: “Why should I service my debt, if the state itself allows this?
Alexey Kovalevanalyst of the investment company Finam
The Rusnano crisis has already caused the current pressure on the ruble and the Russian bond market, said Natalya Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank. Traditionally, the attitude towards Russian quasi-sovereign borrowers (state-owned companies, whose bonds are perceived by investors almost as government debt) was very positive, but now investors can reconsider the risks of this segment of the Russian economy.
“Investors, as a rule, proceed from the premise that state-owned companies will always be responsible for their debts, no matter what the problems with the financial burden or the internal situation in the company. Simply because these borrowers are quasi-sovereign, and any problems they face can cast a shadow on sovereign risk. In a sense, this [the Rusnano crisis] was really a black swan, ”the specialist said.
Real risks
Finam analyst Alexei Kovalev is confident that Rusnano will make the necessary payments on bonds secured by government guarantees. Investors were also assured of this by the Ministry of Finance. However, unsecured debt is likely to be restructured and paid off at a deep discount. Rusnano is already negotiating with the largest holders of such bonds for a discount of 30-40 percent.
Natalya Orlova from Alfa Bank also assumes that the authorities will not allow the company to default and recent events speak in favor of a positive outcome. In her opinion, in this case, the Rusnano crisis will be perceived as a one-time misunderstanding, and the market will simply forget about it. “Since today [Rusnano] has made a decision to make a payment, it seems that management will find ways to repay the bonds and not escalate the situation,” the expert concluded.
71.58 billion rubles is the total debt of Rusnano
Total debt corporation on bonds, taking into account the recently redeemed issue, is 71.58 billion rubles. Rusnano also owed 76.4 billion in loans issued to it by Sovcombank, banks Rossiya, St. Petersburg and Ak Bars.