Moscow lost the battle for France

Candidates for the post of President of France françois Fillon and marine Le Pen



Francois Fillon, candidate for the presidency of French right-wing party “the Republicans”, this week said that if he wins the election will do everything possible to cancel sanctions against Russia.

“I will do everything to lift the sanctions against Russia, which nothing but the ruin of the French farmers, has not led,” said Fillon in the air.

From the beginning of the presidential race Fillon stressed that the international agenda is of great importance for the French economy, so the creation of the dialogue with Moscow is a necessity. However, to conclude try to switch the attention of the French electorate from domestic problems to external impossible.

For Fillon normalization of relations with Russia is important but not the primary objective of his election campaign.

Most likely, Fillon uses the appeal to the Russian agenda to attract voters employed in the agricultural sector of the economy. It is they who bear the greatest losses due to the imposition of Moscow’s counter-sanctions. In the fall rankings Fillon decided to try urgently to expand its electorate.

“As for Putin, he was Prime Minister when I was in the same post. For four years I had the opportunity to meet him many times, and together we held a successful policy, which led in particular to the intensification of Franco-Russian relations in economy, are pretty mediocre compared to what they could be,” said Fillon earlier.

Another candidate, leader of “National front” marine Le Pen, which is considered one of the most Pro-Russian politicians of France, has also repeatedly accused the current leadership of the country in the inability to engage in dialogue with Russia. Moreover, at the end of March she even visited Moscow at the invitation of the Russian deputies. In the Russian capital she met for a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“I have always advocated the lifting of sanctions that are counterproductive,” said Le Pen in Moscow.

However, the positive rhetoric of presidential candidates toward Russia has not said that the relations between our countries will be quickly established if the President of France will be one of these two candidates, the head of the Center for French studies at the RAS Institute of Europe Yury Rubchinskiy.

“The Russian direction of foreign policy is not an attempt to divert attention from domestic problems. The issues of education, economy, ethnicity — these are problems that are area of struggle for French politicians”, — he told in interview “Газетой.Ru”.

This week, France held a debate, which was attended by all 11 candidates for the presidency. The discussion revealed that the international rhetoric, although it has a certain value, but it definitely takes up less space than the economy of France itself. Besides, one of the key problems for Paris is a terrorist threat.

Opening speech by socialist Benoit Hamon, former Minister of education, at the debates began with the sympathy of Russia and Syria — after the terrorist attack in St. Petersburg and a chemical attack in Idlib. However, the applicant stated that it “intends to deal with Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the United States Donald trump”.

Centrist and former socialist Emmanuel macron, one of the favorites of the race, was less emotional, indicating that in the event of his victory, will pursue an independent policy from Russia.

“We have with US a long story. Together we have built the world on the planet. Today I want to offer more independence. Not to get close to Mr Putin. I want to build independence with responsibility, with a real European policy,” macron said during the televised debate.

However, the idea of rapprochement with Russia in the current international situation may be worth the political future of all the candidates in France, the President of the Institute for strategic assessments Alexander Konovalov.

“Of course, earlier statements of the French politicians on rapprochement with Russia could be considered as a message to Moscow, but lately the political situation has changed, and the support of Russia can be expensive French candidates.

After retirements in the U.S. for ties with Moscow, Russia shake hands”, — said Alexander Konovalov, President of the Institute for strategic assessments.

The first round of presidential elections in France will take place on 23 April and the second on 7 may. Sociological surveys show that determined the four main contenders to take the presidency. According to the Agency EFOP, victory in the first round can win marine Le Pen — 25% of voters are ready to give for her own voice. However, Emmanuel macron is not behind the opponent, 24.5% of his support in the polls from April 5. Francois Fillon rounded out the top three with the support of 18%, in fourth place — Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who was supported by 16%.

According to the same poll, if the second round will be Le Pen and the macron, the last will win a sure victory over the representative of right-wing forces.

Experts also doubt the chances of Le Pen victory in the second round. However, after the President of the United States was Donald trump, such a scenario should be considered.

François Fillon, who at the start of the election campaign, the media almost immediately was named the next President of France, according to political analysts, is doomed to failure.

Corruption scandal in which he was involved Fillon winter this year, have shaken the reputation of politics. However, he tries to save face by appealing to the fact that he has “irrefutable evidence”, confirming that “inspection of the prosecution against him was registered.”

With such a small gap in the ratings of support, candidates are forced to change his rhetoric, pulling a few aces out of their sleeves. So, the candidate of the “Left Party” Jean-Luc Mélenchon suddenly echoed one of the thoughts of his opponent marine Le Pen, that France should leave the EU, since support capitalist Europe is costly to the French people.

“I believe that France should withdraw from all the fundamental treaties of the European Union. It is unacceptable that Brussels us capitalists were dictated by the social and economic transformation should be carried out in the country”, — commented the politician. According to Mélenchon, the EU is exploiting the French workers, which complicates the development of the country.

Marine Le Pen even before the race had said that the idea of Frexit will become part of her election campaign. According to policy, the idea of leaving the EU should support other European countries, particularly Portugal, Italy, Spain.

“People should have the opportunity to vote for the liberation from slavery and blackmail on the part of the technocrats in Brussels and to return the sovereignty of the country”, — said the leader of “National front” in November.

Expert Yuri Rubinsky noted that, since the victory of Le pen in the election is unlikely, and a scenario Frexit extremely remote.

“Le Pen has become more cautious in their statements regarding the release and suggests that the question of Frexit, should be thoroughly discussed. According to opinion polls, 72% of the French against the exit Ersouza, so of course Le Pen tone down”, he added.

Alexander Konovalov agree that the withdrawal of France is unlikely, although does not rule out Frexit. “France and Germany constitute the core of the EU, so the country’s withdrawal from the organization will be accompanied by a huge number of problems”, — he told. “Газете.Ru”. But Brexit, according to the expert, was a surprise to the world community.