Experts have called the life of future retirees after the pension reform
Life expectancy after retirement increase retirement age to 65 years for men by 2028 and to 63 years for women to 2034 reaches 14 years and 23 years for men and women respectively. This is stated in the report of the HSE “Demographic context of increasing age of retirement”. Based on the trends of increasing life expectancy in recent years, these estimates are even too low, concluded the experts.
Today, men who lived to be 65 years, while maintaining levels of mortality 2016, have to live 13.4 years, and women, lived up to 63 years is 19.3 years.
The report notes that “one of the biggest myths, discussed in connection with raising the retirement age, is associated with the use of life expectancy: “we will work to the grave”, “after retirement, long will not live” “to the pension in Russia does not survive 40% males.
The authors state that “such high-profile, but incorrect conclusions are drawn from the published by Rosstat mortality tables and estimates of life expectancy at birth”.
In 2016, the average life expectancy of men is really only half of the year exceeded the new legal retirement age equal to 66.5 years. In women, the situation is much more optimistic, their duration of life was 77.1 years, which is 14 more years new retirement age 63 years. But these estimates does not mean that upon reaching the new retirement ages males live only a year and a half, and women for 14 years, negotiated by experts. They note that life expectancy for 2016 or another year “does not refer to any real generation” — this indicator shows the mortality rate of so-called conventional generation. For example, nowadays the life expectancy of men surviving to the current retirement age of 60 years is more than 16 years, while women lived to 55 years, almost 26 years.
The authors of the report give details of the experience of other States, noting that “the vast majority of countries the retirement age does not depend on the duration of life”, and in the past the retirement age in developed countries was above the average life expectancy. Experts emphasize that Russia is a bit behind in raising the retirement age, and this is inevitable.
“Otherwise, we are waiting for or a huge budget spending on pensions due to the increase of taxes and reduction of expenditure on other social needs (health, education), or very low pensions,” the authors conclude.
The government proposes to gradually increase the retirement age for men from the current 60 years to 65 by 2028 for women — from 55 to 63 years by 2034, the Retirement age will increase from 2019, every two years for a year. In 2020 the age of retirement will be 61 for men and 56 years for women, in 2022 — 62 and 57 years, respectively.