XI Jinping without borders
The Chinese authorities intend to cancel existing since 1982, the limit on the number of terms of stay in power the President of China. This opens the current President XI Jinping the road to the almost unlimited rule, because the two other key positions (head of party and head of the army) and now have no time limit. Supporters of the current head of China say that for the initiated reforms stipulated by law ten years would not be enough, opponents — that the country gets on a dangerous path that can only lead to dictatorship.
Sunday morning, the official Chinese Agency Xinhua published the news, which actually marked the beginning of China’s new era.
According to the Agency, the Central Committee of the Communist party (CPC Central Committee) proposed to remove from the Constitution the phrase that the President and the Vice President “can hold the office no more than two consecutive terms.”
Later, the Agency published a document from the event on which this decision was taken. It is, judging by the Dating took place on 26 January. Why the disclosure took place only a month, the Agency said. Most likely, this decision will once again be discussed at the third Plenum of the CPC Central Committee (26-28 February) and finally confirmed at the annual session of vsekitajsky meeting of national representatives on March 5.
The ad actually opens the way to unlimited reign of the current President of China XI Jinping. We will remind, the leader of China usually takes three top post: President of China (similar to President in other countries), General Secretary of the Communist party of China (main post, giving most of the authority) and the head of the Central military Commission, the control of the army.
Formal legislative time limits exist for the post of Chairman of the PRC, which in this case is the “weakest” of the three. Its main purpose is to give the owner status of the head of state, in the event of travel to other countries, it provided the appropriate welcome.
To take two other key post of the leader of China, maybe more than two terms of five years, although it would be a gross violation of the established practice of change of political generations. According to this practice, XI Jinping, came to power in 2012, should leave his post of General Secretary in 2022, handing over power a young successor, agreed by all interest groups. In March 2023 at the first post-Congress session of vsekitajsky meeting of national representatives he should also resign as President, handing him the new Secretary General.
Elimination of limits on the presidency is an important symbolic step, not leaving the slightest doubt as to the intentions of the Secretary General to remain in power until at least 2027 (then he will be 74 years).
“It is noteworthy that in the first explanation of this step is no detailed argument. It is written only that “in the decisive moment should follow the will of the Central Committee,” notice “y” senior researcher of the research Center for East Asia and SCO of MGIMO Igor Denisov.— It is emphasized that we are talking about “partial changes”, but actually “a new period of socialism with Chinese characteristics” (as XI Jinping calls the period of his reign.— “B”) means an entirely new configuration of power. Its contours are not clear, but most likely it will be built not on formal institutions and on the principles of “political ethics”, where the key is the loyalty of the “core system” (the title issued by XI Jinping, the CPC Central Committee.— “Kommersant”), that is, the leader.”
That the Secretary General of the CCP in some way wants to stand out against its predecessors, experts say “Kommersant” for the past three years. The key point here was held in October 2017 XIX Congress of the Communist party of China, in which “ideas XI Jinping of socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era” was included in the Charter of the CCP as an ideological contribution of the new head of the Foundation of the Chinese state. The disturbing assumptions of the experts did not come true: XI Jinping did not violate written or unwritten rules and breaking the current in the 1980-ies the update order of the elite.
The only deviation from the practice was the absence in the new part of the host country of the permanent Committee of the Politburo of the young (50-55 years) politician who in 2022 would have replaced XI Jinping at the sidelines of every decade of the rotation of leaders of the country. However, it could be done for many different reasons. There was hope that the Secretary General will not break the order of power change. He was installed by the architect of Chinese reforms Deng Xiaoping in order to avoid gerontocracy that he reasonably believed the cause of the paralysis and collapse of the USSR.
“Now finally becomes clear what you had in mind, XI Jinping, when he declared at the XIX Congress of the CPC “a new era”, — noted in conversation with “Kommersant” research fellow, Center for Asia-Pacific studies, iiae Feb RAS Ivan Saenko.— “New age” is actually the rejection of the political practices associated with the rule of Deng Xiaoping. The rejection of “China of Deng Xiaoping” and return to “Mao’s China”. The rejection of the system of collective leadership, on the change of generations of leaders once a decade, from the inadmissibility of the return of the cult of personality”.
According to Ivan, zuenko, after the current decision of the CPC Central Committee there is no doubt that a waiver of time limits is not just the desire of the Secretary General to remain in power for five years longer than previously thought, but “the transition to the system of life-long rule”.
Agrees with him Deputy Director of Institute of far Eastern studies Russian Academy of Sciences Andrei Karneev. “That in China there is a creeping “gegensaetze” dissatisfied with the current Chinese leader said a long time ago. But usually, they immediately objected that this is not true: XI Jinping repeatedly flatteringly about Dan sjaopina — he said “Kommersant”.— Now it is becoming more obvious. The current Secretary General believes that without his rule, China is waiting for a disaster and its prevention is much more important than formal and informal restrictions”.
After coming to power in 2012, the current Secretary General was in fact launched an ambitious program of reforms, which lasts to this day. Key among them is the reform of the army, the economy, the fight against the debt of state-owned companies and local governments, strengthening the authority of the Communist party and the anti-corruption campaign, which has become a hallmark of XI Jinping. The interlocutor of “Kommersant” in the Chinese government agencies announced that to resort to such measures “the General Secretary is forcing the situation.”
“The situation is very dangerous, all the gains of recent years can be zeroed if you don’t take drastic measures — he believes.— The main problems are concentrated within the party, and its reform is the most acute and urgent task”.
XI Jinping indeed repeatedly stated that the crucial task considers “providing leadership of the party over all the Affairs of the country”: this is the first item on the program of “socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era”. For this purpose, says leading researcher, Institute of far Eastern studies of RAS Vasily Kashin, it is necessary to stop the confrontation between clans and cliques, typical for China. “The concentration of power in the hands of the leader fixes the preconditions for a factional struggle in the Communist party — he said “Kommersant”.— XI Jinping not intend to play difficult combinations just as did Deng Xiaoping, who ruled the country as Chairman of the Central military Commission (Deng never held the other two most important post in the country, being nevertheless, the actual leader of the state.— “Kommersant”). Dan was forced to constantly put up with factional fighting, despite his vast authority”.
To the XIX Congress of the XI do almost stop the clan fighting in the country with a series of hard landings representatives of all key groups in Chinese elite. Among them were prominent members of the “Shanghai clique” the General Secretary Jiang Zemin once put forward XI Jinping in power, and members of “the Komsomol group” of his predecessor Hu Jintao, and other members of influential clans. The current Politburo consists almost entirely without its own ambitions of technocrats, whose main task is to clearly and accurately complete and execute ideas of the General Secretary.
In this situation, the extension of the term seems logical, says the Director of the Asia program at the Carnegie Moscow center Alexander Gabuev. “The main issue — will result if this hyperconcentrated power in need of reform or will lead to the cycle of the permission set and the result — he shared thoughts with “y”.— Now XI Jinping is no excuses why not are in need of economic, social and other reforms. The power to limit centralized in key positions during the XIX Congress planted a loyal staff, opponents disbanded during the anti-corruption campaign. In fact, the first five years were the preparatory stage, and a ten-year term of President XI Jinping starts now.”