Jeffrey Lewis, Director of East Asian program of the James Martin Center for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in Monterey, have created a scenario for the likely start of the conflict on the Korean Peninsula. The work of the scientist publishes The Washington Post.
According to Lewis, the events can develop in the following way. In March 2019 tired of the constant maneuvers near its borders the North Koreans mistaken the civilian plane for American bomber and capture him.
In response, the President of South Korea moon Jae-In gives the order to strike targets in adjacent areas.
At the same time the President of the United States Donald trump publishes a tweet: “Little rocket man will not last long”, Pyongyang is perceived as a direct threat and a signal for a preemptive nuclear strike, which will involve 36 of the 48 available to the DPRK missiles.
Some of them will not achieve the goal, but others can cause serious attacks on targets in Japan and South Korea. In turn, the United States will deal a massive blow to the DPRK, and Kim Jong UN give the order to launch the remaining in its possession missiles. Will be attacked military bases in San Diego and pearl Harbor, as well as new York and Washington.
American air defense system will be able to overcome two-thirds of the missiles. While a direct hit on Manhattan would lead to the death of over a million victims in Washington will be 300 thousand. Trump will be saved in an underground bunker in Florida. The body of Kim Jong-UN will be discovered in the shelter — North Korean leader will commit suicide.
On 5 October it was reported that in case of conflict, a nuclear attack by Pyongyang on Seoul and Tokyo may lead to the death of over two million people. Expert evaluations are based on the fact that in the Arsenal of the DPRK has 25 nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles and they will all be used simultaneously.