The financiers gave a forecast of the growth of wages for two years
This year the real wages of Russians will increase by at least four percent, while the optimistic scenario is seven percent. In 2020 the growth of real wages will continue.
This forecast was made by experts of the Financial University under the government of Russia, summarizing studies of consumer sentiment (“RG”). On their basis was updated forecasts of socio-economic development of Russia in 2019 and 2020.
According to experts, despite the growth of salaries, growth of real incomes (wages constitute only part of the real disposable income) in the current year will slow down. “Only in 2020 this figure, according to our estimates, should return to growth. On an annual basis, it can increase at least one percent. In the optimistic case the growth of real incomes of the population in 2020 can be up to 6-7%,” — says the rector of the Financial University Alex Barb. Because the growth of the economy is not great — not even reach two percent per year.
Inflation by the end of this year, according to experts of the financial University, is less than four percent.
“The second half of 2019 inflation will start to decrease due to the reduction in consumer activity,” — said Barb. According to experts, over the next two years should not be expected and the renewed interest of the population for expensive purchases.
“At the end of 2018 we have recorded a significant decline in consumer interest in purchasing new cars. In this regard, we can expect a noticeable deceleration of the market of vehicles. After reaching a peak in late summer — early fall of last year began to fall and the interest of the population to purchase real estate — apartments and houses in the region of residence, and to move to another city”, says Barb.
And that adds up to mid-2019, the ruble will remain weak against the dollar.
According to him, in the second half of this year and in 2020 the possible reversal of the trend towards strengthening of the ruble. “We continue to see no reason for a serious failure of prices on the oil market. According to our estimates, oil prices have every reason for the growth, which can be in 2019-2020 30-40 percent in annual terms,” — said Alexey Prong.
The greatest growth in 2019 we can expect in the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol. Among the potential leaders in the growth of the gross regional product also includes Amur oblast, the Chechen Republic, Samara oblast and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).