Death by heat: as temperatures will destroy people
Scientists: deaths from heat will increase fivefold by 2080.
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Australian scientists have published a study according to which the global mortality due to extreme heat will grow five-fold over the next 60 years. According to their forecasts, the number of deaths due to high temperatures associated with global warming will gradually increase every year in 20 States.
By 2080, the number of victims of global warming in tropical and subtropical regions will increase almost five times. This forecast was made by Australian scientists Monash University in Melbourne.
To estimate the number of deaths from heat scientists have developed a computer model that covers 20 countries in the period 2031-2080 years. They took into account the volume of emitted greenhouse gases by burning fossil fuels, the population density in the regions and various strategies to mitigate heat.
According to the Professor of the London school of hygiene and tropical medicine, Antonio Gasparrini, the reason for the study was the fact that tens of thousands of people around the world suffer from health problems caused by climate warming and related process abnormally high temperatures.
Scientists also concluded that in future periods of abnormally hot weather will recur more frequently, and their duration will increase.
“If we are not able to slow down the process of climate change, deaths from extremely hot weather will increase. This is especially true of countries located near the equator,” warned the study’s author Professor Yimin.
The first negative effects of global warming will be felt by the inhabitants of tropical countries with high population density. According to the most pessimistic scenario in Australian cities — Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne — mortality from weather events, the frequency of which will increase due to high temperature to increase by 471% compared to the 1971-2010 years. Under the weather events can imply drought and, for example, heavy storm.
Also the number of deaths from heat will increase in India, Greece, Japan and Canada, where the situation will exacerbate forest fires.
To countries at risk, scientists also made a number of recommendations. For example, more and better to teach people how to provide first aid, to rethink urban policy, expanding the area of green areas and providing citizens with comfortable housing. The researchers also strongly encourages the authorities to provide people with permanent access to drinking water.
According to Australian experts, to mitigate the projected impacts countries do not forget about the Paris agreement in 2015. According to him, the mankind should not allow a rise in the average temperature of the planet more than a half a degree. Signatory countries are obliged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, reorienting its economy on green technology.
A group of researchers from Stanford University has previously stated that global warming may lead to an increase in the number of suicides.
Comparing the growth rate of the number of episodes of abnormally high temperatures that occurred in the United States and Mexico over the past few decades, the researchers found a clear correlation of these rates with the increase in the number of suicides.
According to their calculations, the increase in the average temperature by one degree means the increase in the number of suicides, which constitutes for US an additional 0,7%, and for Mexico and all of 2.1%.
These calculations predict that by 2050, suicide is more by 1.4% in the US and 2.3% in Mexico. In other words, the suicide only in the United States will drive further from 14 to 26 thousand.
The study found that the maximum number of suicides is at the beginning of the summer period, during which it increases the overall aggressiveness of the population. The authors blame the increase in the number of suicides in heat side effects of thermoregulation or other neurological reactions in response to increase in temperature. These processes, in turn, can affect the mental health of people.