The future comes: when robots displace people
WEF: by 2025, robots will be doing more tasks than men.
Upstairs
By 2020, due to technology development and innovation 75 million people may lose their jobs, says the report of the WEF. By 2025 robots will be doing more tasks than men. And Russia will have to cut a third of staff in all sectors of the economy. At risk in the first place — banking and public sector, including officials, as well as such professions as accountant or auditor.
About 75 million people could be unemployed by 2020 because of technology and automation of production processes. This forecast is incorporated in the report “the Future of jobs in 2018,” released by the world economic forum (WEF), Eurasian competitiveness Institute and consulting company Strategy Partners.
In 2017 new, technologically advanced cars on the global market accounted for 29% of the total spent on the creation of goods and services time. In 2022, this figure will reach 42%, and in 2025 is 52%, that is, robots and new mechanisms will produce more than people.
The report States that around a quarter of jobs can be automated more than 70%, the experts suggest to complement the advanced technology literate staff for productivity growth.
But the new technology will not create imbalance in the labour market and a sharp rise in unemployment will not, calm experts.
On the contrary, the WEF predicts that new technologies will create about 133 million new jobs.
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According to experts, in Russia, according to conservative estimates, may be reduced to 30% of the workforce in almost all sectors. Including innovation may affect the public sector. The head of the chamber Alexei Kudrin believes that the digitalization over the next six years will enable a one-third reduction in the number of civil servants. If you have enough money for the development of new technologies. Ex-Finance Minister admits that “in the next six years the digitalization will be connected with great expenses for new technologies, creation of database, the connection of all these architectures and technology”. “It is generally an expensive matter,” he warns.
Digitalization is preparing a serious problem and workers in the financial sector.
The number of banks reduced, and in those that remain, the bulk of the work will be automated.
Gloomy forecast, in particular, was expressed by the Executive Director of the data Analytics Institute Deloitte Alexey Minin. For the 2030 time horizon of the banks in its current form will not.
To this point, “we don’t need” in a number of financial intermediaries to provide liquidity for companies, and the winners will be those credit institutions that will use the “good algorithms for data analysis” and to understand the risks their clients better than others. Minin believes that “consolidation” of the banking market is inevitable, “winner takes all” and the loser will have to leave.
At the same time because of development of digital technology will not need in such numbers not only bankers, but also auditors and accountants. At least those who work at Junior positions and do not possess unique knowledge.News
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New technologies have already proved their efficiency: they allow to analyze the condition of banks much better than do auditors. At a session of the Gaidar forum Minin said that the model built based on open data on the website of the Central Bank and other information from external sources, without any insider information, allows three months before the revocation of the license of the Central Bank to accurately predict 81% of cases, the adoption of a decision by the regulator. In this case, those errors that occur in the program, he explains, including, “insider market”.
The advent of the “numbers” on banks in the market for a long time.
The head of Sberbank German Gref stated that competitors, the largest Russian Bank — Sberbank — were Google and Amazon because of the interest of these companies to the financial services.
“We must be as armed with technology, how armed with these players. Next year we will see various financial institutions these tech giants in the world,” — said Gref.
According to the forecast, Gref, literally 3-5 years in the Bank “bots” will take over the function of personal financial advisors answering typical questions of the customers of the Bank. As noted by the head of the largest Bank last year, now 99% of credit decisions for individuals are automatically accepted.
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However, Professor of Economics, futurist Andrey Korotayev considers that the full robotization does not threaten the world in the near future, reports of NSN. Earlier in June, the seven predictions for the near future in the field of robotics, the Internet, trade and medicine published the American magazine Wired. So, the authors note that shortly shipping and transportation over long distances will the robots artificial intelligence to learn to recognize human emotions, virtual reality will be ubiquitous, and doctors will be able to treat genetic diseases.
“It is the extrapolation of the very real trends that are currently observed. Nothing careless in this forecast there. But the full robotization is just a beautiful metaphor, nothing more. It is, rather, about the use of robots in a significantly larger number of destinations. The same applies to virtual reality,” — said the expert.