Economist Nadoshin: the problem for the Russian economy is the balance of households
Experts called “black swans” for the Russian economy. The main problem, which may come as a big surprise, is the balance of households, says Evgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at PF Capital, RIA Novosti reports.
find that it is at a level no higher than that which was in the United States and Europe before the crisis – for them 2007-2008, for us more than 2009, ”he said. The expert admits that the Russian economy will stagnate in 2022.
Sova Capital economist Artem Zaigrin believes that geopolitical risks should not be forgotten. “When timber is cut, chips fly, and the US-China trade war could have a huge impact on us and other emerging markets,” he predicts.
The economy will also be affected by high uncertainty about inflation and reaction interest rates, believes Dmitry Polevoy, investment director of Loko-Invest. He also noted the growth of the state's share in the economy. Valery Vaisberg, director of the IC Region analytical department, calls the increase in military spending a big risk. The expert considers this factor to be very negative.
In October, the Danish bank Saxo Bank said that Russia is dangerously close to stagflation – a situation when an economic downturn is combined with inflation.