Military historian Yulin: the armed conflict is beneficial to the Ukrainian and Russian authorities military historian Boris Yulin is sure. In a conversation with Lenta.ru, he noted that this is indicated by the absence of attempts by both sides to enter into a dialogue, although this opportunity still remains.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier that the implementation of the Minsk agreements is the best guarantee of security in the situation of the Ukrainian conflict. However, Yulin is sure: the Minsk agreements alone will not fix the situation.
“The likelihood of a conflict is increasing”
“The military confrontation will make it possible to write off internal problems for both the Russian and Ukrainian authorities – that is why they are pedaling this situation,” the expert is sure. “They tried to extinguish the conflict since 2014, so the Minsk agreements are definitely not enough to remove the threat of escalating into a hot phase.”
Yulin believes that, first of all, it is necessary to separate both sides beyond the limits of mutual reach. Also, in his opinion, it is necessary to create gray zones with peacekeepers, for example, from the UN and parties neutral to the conflict. But, according to the historian, no one is doing this.
“We need to start negotiations right now. The problem is that the Ukrainian side, in principle, is not going to perceive Donbass as a subject of negotiations. However, there were no full-fledged attempts at dialogue from either side. According to Ukrainian rhetoric, no compromises are considered here in principle, but how to negotiate when one of the parties is not going to concede at all? ” – Yulin said.
Without negotiations, he said, the constant build-up of military capabilities and mutual aggressive rhetoric will sooner or later develop into a hot phase.
“Now the probability of a military conflict is higher than, say a year or two ago. And it is constantly increasing. That is, if we make assessments, the likelihood that hostilities will start is higher than that they will not start, “the military expert summed up.
Previously, Peskov said that Russia is not going to attack Ukraine and does not hatch any aggressive plans.