Hybrid mode: why Maduro has failed to become the new Chavez
Due to economic collapse, mass emigration and a surge in crime, the removal of Venezuelan President from power, the opposition, the Parliament had only a matter of time.
13фотографий13фотографий13фотографийденьги in exchange for loyalty
Times Venezuela Hugo Chavez and the first years of Nicolas Maduro differed from fellows by the type of regime one important factor: honest, transparent and competitive elections. Strange as it may sound, but the slogan Hugo Chavez about the sanctity of each vote of the Venezuelan worked in practice.
For electoral autarky Chavez just did not required systemic fraud. The sharp rise in energy prices in 2000-ies allowed the regime in the country is the absolute leader in proven oil reserves, ahead of even Saudi Arabia and a relatively small population (30 million people), physically feed their constituents.
Left populism of Chavez, a growing share of government in GDP, high social burden, leading to reduced efficiency of the Venezuelan economy, the corruption of the regime is completely offset by high and rising income from oil exports.
The idyll came to an end in the last years of Chavez. Even the still very high oil prices could not compensate for the inefficiency of the regime and the Venezuelan economy is, alternately falling (minus 3.2% of GDP in 2009, minus 1.5% in 2010) and growing up (plus 4.2 percent in 2011, plus a 5.6% in 2012, a plus of 1.3% in 2013) are stuck near zero.
Down with a Zimbabwean tempo
Nicolas Maduro, in fact, did not bring anything new into practices. The literal printing of money to ensure the loyalty of citizens and fulfil the growing fiscal obligations is the main political tool of Hugo. All the zero years, inflation in Venezuela does not fall below double digits, on average remaining at the level of 20-30%.
Maduro not only has not changed the logic of economic policy, but only increased the printing of money. It is caused by hyperinflation, a sharp jump in commodity prices pushed the Venezuelan government to the last step, pushed the country into a protracted crisis, direct state regulation of prices, the nationalization of stores, with confiscation and distribution of the population of the leftovers. The complex hyperinflation and state regulation of exchange rate and prices has led to acute shortages of basic commodities and the emergence of a black market in both food and currency.
Crazy queues for scarce goods at “state prices”, a developed black market, increasing crime — in this situation the country is met and the collapse in energy prices in late 2014. From now on, even oil is not provided inflow of foreign currency, sufficient for the ordinary functioning of the country and at least some retention of the balance of payments from a catastrophic performance. The national currency, remaining almost unchanged, officially flew down from Zimbabwean pace. In 2015 inflation in the country amounted to 121,7% rate of the Bolivar on the black market, when official 10 bolivars per $1, increased in that year from 100 to 1,000 bolivars per $1.
Subsequent developments became more and more rampant. Venezuela, losing 7-15% of GDP per year, officially topped the list of worst economies in the world, inflation and devaluation by 2018, measured in hundreds and thousands of percent per month.
The dramatic pattern is well characterized by the fact that the denomination of Bolivar and the introduction of a new currency “sovereign Bolivar” had to be postponed for several months due to the lack of currency to pay for the printing of new money. When the launch of a new currency took place on 24 August 2018, is the planned denomination of 1000 was increased to 100 000 times with banknotes instead of three zeros removed five, reaching a rate of 60 bolivars per $1.