Meteorologists promised El Nino this winter

Meteorologists promised El Nino this winter

Forecast for winter temperatures preliminary and will be updated.


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764 mm Hg. article

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The world meteorological organization (WMO) confirmed its previous forecast, and stated that in December-February with a probability of 75-80 percent formed a warm phenomenon El niño. Its intensity is not as high as in 2015-2016, when droughts and floods have led to the fact that about 100 million people in southern Africa, Asia and Latin America faced a shortage of food and drinking water.

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Warm phenomenon El niño (“the boy” in Spanish) and similar cold phenomenon La niña (“girl”) — two phases of the southern oscillation, temperature fluctuations of surface water in the Equatorial Pacific ocean. El niño and La niña influence global temperature, precipitation and weather in General in many parts of the world. In particular, El niño is usually associated with years, abnormally warm in terms of a global average temperature.

According to the latest WMO, sea surface temperature on a partial area of the tropical Pacific ocean “already correspond to levels characteristic of a weak phenomenon El niño, although the relevant atmospheric modes have not yet formed.” The likelihood of developing a full-fledged El niño in the period from December 2018 to February 2019 is approximately 75-80 percent, and the probability of its preservation in February-April 2019 is about 60 percent.

The sea surface temperature in the Eastern-Central tropical Pacific ocean from October 2018 are at levels characteristic of a weak phenomenon El niño. However, the atmosphere has not responded to this additional heat, and the winds in the upper atmosphere, the system of clouds and pressure at sea level yet do not reflect the characteristics of El niño. According to forecasts based on models, this will change within one or two months.World meteorological organization

Meteorologists also note that according to the preliminary seasonal climate forecast for this winter, temperatures will be above normal in most parts of Asia, Europe, North America, Caribbean, Africa, Australia, Indonesian archipelago, and South America.

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Below normal or close to it the temperature in parts of the South of South America, South-East of North America, in some parts of North-West Europe and in South-Central Asia.

Below normal precipitation is predicted in the Caribbean, Central America and in the North, the South-West and South of the South American continent, on the coastal Islands of South-East Asia, in the southern part of the Indonesian archipelago, on some South Pacific Islands and South-West and in the Eastern Equatorial region of Africa. Above normal precipitation is expected in the South and Northwest North America, Southeast South America, in Central, Northern and South-Western parts of Asia and parts of Europe. This preliminary forecast is based on data from the climate models and constantly being updated.