The Russians found out, from-for what in Europe throw the earth
Agricultural land cease to be used primarily due to poor climate and then because of the socio-economic problems.
Russian scientist Alexander Prishchepov, together with German and American colleagues have identified factors that primarily affect agricultural land. Using machine learning, the researchers found that the most important thing, which throw of arable land, the suboptimal climatic conditions in the place where they are. A slightly smaller role is played by socio-economic factors. However for the most accurate forecast of the fate of agricultural land it is necessary to consider data in the context of the region. A scientific paper published in the journal Science of The Total Environment.
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The researchers used data from the project Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) — multiple sensors for wave length from 0.4 to 14.4 micrometers, arranged on two NASA satellites in earth orbit. MODIS collects data once in 1-2 days, but with a spatial resolution of 232 meters to one kilometer. Sensors allow us to learn about the movements of hurricanes, and forest fires, land condition (for example, what percentage of the study area occupied by vegetation), etc. From the information provided by MODIS, the authors were interested in information about how to change the character of use of agricultural land in the EU countries and some other neighboring States from 2001 to 2012.
First, the researchers took into account which previously given for ploughing throwing was discontinued for three years or more. The scientists also analyzed the situation in “leaving the earth”: what is the population density and the unemployment rate, and how they changed in previous years.
What sort of weather conditions, effectiveness of the use of the land, what size were her plots etc. the Received data is entered into a mathematical model that defines the role of each of the external factors in the fate of the fields and gardens.
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Comparison of different factors showed that most of the risk of withdrawal of lands from agricultural turnover increases the optimal climate — in particular, a large proportion of days with too high or too low for a grown culture temperatures. Given that now the climate is changing rapidly, this factor will significantly change the appearance of farming in Europe the next few decades. Also proved to be an important social, economic and demographic situation. Where people leave, fields throw more often. Unemployment also contributes to maintaining the level of agriculture in the region. On the third place in importance is the character of the management of agricultural land: if the fields or gardens have a small area and/or yields are low, they are more likely to stop using.
Europeans leave farmland not only because of the adverse conditions. Part of the decrease in their size is due to the intensification of agriculture — increased crop without growth involved area. Another positive reason for the creation of specially protected natural territories.
But, as shown by simulation, the mode of human activity does not affect the probability of withdrawal of agricultural land out of circulation — that is, it does not depend on, close to town, village or national Park are the field or garden.
One of the most interesting results of the work — map of Europe printed by the probability of withdrawal from circulation of agricultural land. According to her, the greatest risk of being abandoned at the present time the fields of Poland, the Baltic republics and the Kaliningrad region, the North-Eastern part of Germany and southern TRANS-Urals. In most parts of Belarus, Northern Ukraine, Central Russia and South-West of Spain it is small, but present. Significant changes in other European countries, including in the South of Ukraine and Russia, should not wait: there midfield will almost certainly survive.