Predicted the inevitable destruction of alien civilizations
An international group of scientists from the U.S. and Germany determined the most probable scenarios of development of humanity and alien civilizations, most of which ends in a collapse. The researchers took into account the influence of intelligent beings on the climate of our own planet and how this impact can turn for the aliens.
The article was published in the journal Astrobiology. About it reported in a press release on Phys.org.
Experts have developed a mathematical model that takes into account population, climate change and the capacity of the environment — the optimal number of individuals that can be provided with food and other benefits without prejudice to its further existence. The model is based were the results of the studies ramanujam civilization on Easter island, which reached the peak of development in 1200-1500 years BC, and its decline occurred in the XVIII century due to the depletion of resources.
It turned out that the development of any civilization could go one of four ways.
In the scenario of the “extinction”of the population of the planet is growing rapidly with an average temperature of. In the end of technological civilization reaches its peak of development, but then starts to decline as the climate is unsuitable for the existence of a large number of creatures. At some point the system will again come into equilibrium, however, will survive only a small proportion of the population. In the second scenario, which is the only positive, is sustainable development without catastrophic consequences, which is possible only under the condition that the civilization in time aware that the reckless consumption of resources will destroy her.
The third option provides for the development and a sharp reduction in the number of population without exhausting resources. Civilization is dying, but it may not necessarily lead to the complete disappearance of sentient beings. In the last scenario, the aliens realize that their actions can lead to disaster, but the transition to alternative fuels comes too late and is not able to prevent the deaths.
According to scientists, it is not clear which scenario is more likely for humanity.
However, the researchers admit that people can change the Earth’s climate to such an extent that the termination of greenhouse gas emissions will not improve the situation.
According to scientists, if the Earth’s climate will warm by two degrees, it will start an unpredictable change in the system of atmospheric circulation. Will occur the intensive melting of glaciers, which will lead in turn to rising sea levels. It is estimated that by the year 2100 will be flooding of coastal cities, as well as disappear some inhabited Islands, including the Maldives.