Ukraine have it on the presidents. The experts described four scenarios for the development up to 2027

Ukraine have it on the presidents. The experts described four scenarios for the development up to 2027

International expert group from six countries yesterday in Moscow presented the report “Four scenarios of development of Ukraine”. In it in the form of short stories with unexpected details describes the options for the future of this country for the next ten years, considering both internal and external factors. The authors of the document stressed that he does not pretend to scientific prediction, but intend to give an impulse to rethink the “biased assessments of the future.” They had agreed positive interchanges involve the decentralization of power, a departure from the radical ideology and the establishment of relations with Russia. But the current President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, they predict the unenviable fate.

“Our discussion was very intense. We were even shouting at each other”, — was said at the presentation in Moscow, one of the authors of the report — the head of the Vienna Bureau of the German Friedrich Ebert Foundation for cooperation and peace in Europe Reinhard Krumm. Participation in the work of taking Russian international Affairs Council (RIAC). In addition, the drafting of the document involved experts from Ukraine, Austria, USA and Slovakia.

The report, issued in the form of a color brochure, written in simple language and even humor. Experts have identified four scenarios of Ukraine’s development on the basis of variables: weak or strong power, cohesive or fragmented civil society, etc.

The first scenarioprepared by RIAC Director General Andrey Kortunov and Director of the Kiev Institute of global transformations Alexei Selenium, looks very optimistic. According to him, Ukraine will become “a new model of the state of the European periphery”. This result will be achieved through decentralization and active civil society amid weak institutions of state power.

Explaining how the country could come to such a model, the report’s authors, however, make a number of bold assumptions. At the end of 2018, they assume that the country will hold parliamentary elections (according to plan this will happen only in 2019), which will come to power supporters of the “real decentralization both in political and in economic matters.” As for safety, here the influence of the security forces will decline, and the “line of separation of the Crimea and Donbass” will be de facto recognized.

If the next President of Ukraine experts call abstract Vladimir karmalyuk (among Ukrainian politicians such person is not, however, a clear Association with the Ustym Karmaliuk, the leader of the peasant uprising in the Ukraine in the early nineteenth century), something about Russia, they sure will remain in power, Vladimir Putin. However, his politics are not the same as it is now.

To “revive relations with the West” and to give impetus to the Russian economy, it in 2018 “will gradually withdraw most of the support” republics of Donbass.

In an interview with “Kommersant” Andrey Kortunov said that under the “support” refers to military assistance: “Without the military and economic aid Moscow, the Republic would not have lasted”.

The fighting in the Donbass, in the first scenario, will continue until 2021. After that, the territory of the DNI and LC, according to the Minsk agreements are being re-integrated into Ukraine. While some posts will be people, who worked in the Republic’s leadership.

The second scenario — according to the authors, he is the best — it involves both strong state and strong civil society. It was the work of senior fellow of U.S. Rand Corp. Samuel Charap and famous Ukrainian diplomat, President of the consulting company “Grant Thornton Ukraine” Oleksandr Chaly.

According to them, the changes will be associated primarily with a willful policy of the new President, which the authors called Yaroslav the Wise. He will win the elections in 2019 and “will become a worldwide star thanks to the inspirational speech at the UN General Assembly”. The President will say about the “rejection of far-right nationalism.” It will also deal with reintegration into the Ukrainian society of former supporters of DNR and LNR, including those who fought, but in the beginning these people would have to “testify”. By 2024, in Ukraine, besides the Constitution will be amended, providing after President Wise transition to a “German parlamentarische system with a powerful Constitutional court.”

After Kiev proclaimed non-aligned status, the final return of Donbass in the Ukraine will happen in 2027. New Ukrainian economy will be open to both Russia and Europe and therefore will grow at 7% annually.

After reading the first two scenarios, the third seems especially grim. He was an expert at the Carnegie endowment Balas Arabic and fellow of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation Simon Weiss.

According to their scenario, the current President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko with work, but still elected for the next term in 2019.

In the Donbas continue to act in a “quasi-state, completely cut off from the rest of Ukraine.” Instead of federalization, the President is trying to consolidate power in Kiev, that turns out not very successful. This gives impetus to the strengthening of right-wing forces and closes the path to reintegration of Donbass.

The standard of living continues to decline, to blame corruption and the loss of the Russian market for Ukrainian products. Against this background, in 2024 there is a military coup, Petro Poroshenko losing power. The election is not held, the ultra-right forces establish an authoritarian regime. The European partners “distanciruemsa” from Kiev, but US aid continues to flow — see Ukraine there is an Outpost in the struggle with Moscow. By 2027 any restoration of relations with Russia has not seen even theoretically possible. Moreover, the “army for the liberation of the Crimea”, consisting of Crimean Tatar activists and veterans of the volunteer battalions organizes provocations on the Peninsula.

According to the fourth scenario, the authorities in Ukraine will come the technocrats. On this scenario worked as Director of the Berlin Center for East European and international studies Gwendolyn Sasse and Reinhard Krumm.

According to them, the technocrats de facto will recognize the joining the Crimea to Russia and the independence of the DNI and LC.

This result supposedly will lead to disappointment in the policy of Poroshenko and strengthening of the “Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc” in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In Parliament there are three roughly equal players: the new party on the basis of the “block of Petro Poroshenko” (the President will leave politics, securing immunity), the “Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc” and “Opposition bloc”.

Citizens in this “tired of balancing on the edge of the cliff and weak States”. But the war Ukrainians no longer consolidates the army and volunteer battalions receive less and less support.

Technocratic government is undertaking reforms top-down — they rely on the “modernized industry and agriculture”. The new elite are aware of: for the economic development of the world from Russia. Ukraine signs trade agreements with the EU and with the Eurasian Union. The youth of Ukraine in 2027 “perceived failure to resolve the Crimean issue as a given”.

The opinions of respondents ‘ b ‘ experts about which scenario seems the most viable, divided. Oleksiy Semeniy said that “all cards still on the table,” but neither scenario does not match the current situation to the fullest. The head of the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management Ruslan Bortnik believes that “talking about strong government or about the prospects of power in this situation not necessary,” however, the re-election is an important objective for Petro Poroshenko.

Another Kiev political analyst, member of public Council at the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andriy Buzarov is pessimistic. “The division of society will continue, and no politician will be able to merge it. The reintegration of Donbass, I do not believe, and the war will go on for another six years, he said.— Normalization of relations with Russia is impossible without normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington.” However, right-wing coup, Mr. Buzarov does not expect — because of the fact that focused on his strength will not be supported by the West.

While Andrey Kortunov at the end of a meeting called to consider Ukraine not as a “puppet of the West”, and as an independent player. “It is important to recognize the independence of the Ukrainian people and the legitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities. Tie talk about the “Kiev junta” that some among us are”, — said the head of the INF.

Kirill Krivosheev; Yanina Sokolovskaya, Kyiv