The election of the President remained without independent sociology
All-Russia centre of studying of public opinion (VTSIOM) announced on Monday the start of a research project for the presidential elections. According to the survey, 67% of Russians say that they will certainly take part in the elections, and another 11% will make it “likely”.
According to 64% of respondents, elections are held in an “open and fair political fight,” and 23% believe that they can hardly be called “truly free and democratic.”
For Vladimir Putin is ready to vote for 73.8% of all respondents, the nominee of the Communist party Pavel Grudinina or 7.2%, for LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky is 4.7%. Below the level of error the results of TV presenter Ksenia Sobchak (1%), the founder of the “Yabloko” Grigory Yavlinsky (0.6%) and the business Ombudsman Boris Titov (0,3%).
VTSIOM 100% controlled by the state represented by Rosimushchestvo. Alternative sociology, which has traditionally provided independent “Levada center,” this election will not.
According to its Director, Lev Gudkov, after the start of the campaign, the center ceased to publish data of their surveys on elections, though will continue to hold them. During the Duma elections of 2016, “Levada-center” was recognized by the foreign agent, and according to the electoral law, such organizations can not in any way participate in elections and referendums, says Gudkov, “violating the law face fines and even closure of the organization.” The foreign agents law was originally aimed at the displacement of alternative interpretations and independent sources of information, I’m sure a sociologist: “From the VTsIOM our data differed slightly, the differences were in nuances. Although we have the results [of the authorities] were always lower.”
General Director VTsIOM Valery Fedorov surprised that “Levada-the centre” will not publish surveys: “Competition was not between us, we have different customers. It is a pity that now there will be less data. The more, the better, especially since it is not on the cowboy’s office, and about an organization that has existed for 14 years”.
The Fund “Public opinion” (FOM) being there are no plans for special projects dedicated to the elections, says the President Foma Alexander Oslon: “On the website weekly published data on voting, trust, evaluation”.
In fact, the differences between VTsIOM and “Levada-center” was often highly visible.
So, in December, according to the “Levada”, “definitely” intended to vote 28% of respondents, “likely”, and 30%, the polls had assessed these categories, respectively in 70% and 11%. “A turnout of 78% was never on the elections in Russia,” Gudkov recalls. Fedorov said that they focus on the attendance of 67-70% and the discrepancy in the data is due to the wording of the question and the method: “we Have this telephone survey, “Levada-center”, likely door-to-door. I trust the quality of our surveys”.
Press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov did not answer the question of “Vedomosti” about the Kremlin’s attitude to the absence of elections polls “Levada-center”, saying only that the analysis of electoral data “used existing data centers.”
The presidential administration focuses on VTSIOM, FOM, “Levada-center”, “sample at everyone,” says a person close to the administration.
Polls during the election to make the administration of FOM and VCIOM, but the data are allowed to publish and some not, says a former Federal official: “the Sample standard surveys are usually small, but if necessary, you can order individual studies or larger sample to measure a specific region.”
There are also surveys of the FSO, which including playing the role of verification of information in case of strong differences between the data of sociologists, adds the source.
Another source close to the presidential administration, says that FSO is always a percentage lower than VTsIOM and Thomas.
During the presidential campaign explores the Putin’s rating and its major competitors, the turnout and its dynamics, the flow of votes from the candidates, he adds: “moreover, it investigates the problems which interested the voter is, what is more important: the growth of housing, unemployment, the evil West”. While submissions are moderated, especially during election campaigns, said the source: “If the figures are published — so this decision, because during the election, the publication of indicators — it is, in fact, forming a kind of phenomenon that influences electoral opinion.”
For the Communist party traditionally polls established in 1989, the Center of researches of political culture of Russia (TSIPKR), said the Secretary of the Communist party Sergei Obukhov.
According to him, the methods of gathering information in Cipcre and VTsIOM identical. Before the New year, the center has published a study that showed a sharp increase in ratings not only Grudinina, but Sobchak said nick: both, the result was higher than gave them to the polls.
The liberal democratic party conducts surveys with the participation of regional offices, said the Deputy of the state Duma Yaroslav Nilov. In addition, landmark is comments of users of social networks in response to the initiatives and videos with speeches of Zhirinovsky, as well as people’s reaction to the appearance of the leader of LDPR in any part of the country at any time, adds the MP.
“Apple” eating sociology “Levada-center”, tells a press-the Secretary of party Igor Jakovlev: “in addition, the party and the expert-analytical Department analyzes the entire public sociology”.
Market of electoral studies is not, says the President of holding “ROMIR” Andrey milehin: “Electoral sociology, which was 20 years ago, does not exist. Then, due to the data of different companies you could look at the process from different sides, was the alternative that protected data is not allowed to manipulate them. When “public” sociology dominates, then we get what is.”