OIG Kudrin: protests grow along with the economy

OIG Kudrin: protests grow along with the economy

The Committee of civil initiatives former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reported on the growing number of Russian regions, where political risks and the possibility of mass protests.

Among them were 13 Russian regions, including such big as Moscow, Dagestan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov, Samara region.

The economic situation in Russia improves. Why, then, brewing discontent?

Information about the protest regions are contained in the report of the experts Committee of civil initiatives Alexander Kanev, Nikolay Petrov and Alexey Titkova. The calculations are based on the index of socio-economic and political tensions in Russian regions as of 1 July 2017.

The method of calculating the index covers three dimensions — the economy, politics and protest activity.

The socio-economic situation, experts estimate on the basis of official statistics on incomes, trade and indicators of the budget of the region.

The political situation, the experts assess the presence or absence of political competition in elections, independence of MPs and other similar indicators. The experts also assess the personnel changes in the region.

Protest activity experts OIG analyzed on the basis of media reports about the protests in the regions, their scale and orientation, political or social.

Thanks to loans

Analysis of the three components showed that only in the risk zone were 13 Russian regions, of which only one — the Republic of Komi is located in the area of economic risks. All the other 12 regions are in the area of political risk and risk of mass protests.

In the second half of 2016, the situation was different. In the area of economic risks was 10 regions, such as Altai Krai, Kemerovo and Samara region, and in the area of political risks — 11 regions. In some cases, the same region was in different risk zones.

In General, the economic situation in 2015-2016 was the main risk factor, but now, on the contrary, it smooths out the overall situation and reduces the number of regions at risk, according to the materials of the OIG.

“The former is the main risk factor for the income decline and the associated reduction in turnover has slowed, with the result that the current rating of most of the regions formally out of the “zone of risk” economic indicators”, — stated in the materials of the OIG.

But the increase in consumption is largely due to consumer credit, and this worries experts OIG. Especially because loans take the poorest groups of the population.

According to the Central Bank, in August, lending increased by 1.6%. Ranepa polls also show that people are tired of the crisis once again began to take out loans to buy more goods.