Experts have estimated the chances of “opposition governors”



The Agency political and economic communications (APEK) has presented a report in which it estimated positions of the three governors who are not members of “United Russia”: the Oryol region Vadim Patomskogo (Communist party), the Irkutsk region Sergey Levchenko (Communist party) and the Smolensk region Alexey Ostrovsky (LDPR). If the positions of the Oryol and Smolensk Governor in APEK considered sustainable, the position of Sergey Levchenko called “vulnerable”. Political analyst Alexander Kynev says that the stability of a Governor depends on the opposition and on the personality of the Governor.

In the report “the Opposition governors: positioning, interaction with political parties and elites, the political course” experts APEK estimated positions of Vadim Patomskogo, Sergey Levchenko Alexey Ostrovsky. “With all the differences between the regions many of the challenges were similar, but different strategies they used to solve management problems led to the development of the political situation in the regions according to different scenarios,” — said in the report. “While the most stable are positions of the Oryol and Smolensk Governor,” — experts say. The Federal center no “serious complaints” to Vadim Patomskogo, and in the case of Alexei Ostrovsky “there is a clear signs of support from the Federal figures”.

The position of Levchenko, whose term ends in 2020, “more vulnerable”. Experts attribute this to the instability of the political situation in the Irkutsk region. Over the past ten years, none of the four predecessors Sergey Levchenko has failed to work up to the end of the term. In addition, in 2020, Sergey Levchenko will celebrate 67 years, and “at that age can support the nomination, “the Governor-heavyweight” , but the probability of acquisition of such status by Sergey Levchenko is not visible,” — noted in APEK. However, the “complex configuration of elites in the Irkutsk region, provoking political instability to some extent works for Sergey Levchenko”: “even with an increase in claims to it by the centre the Federal government will be harder to find his replacement shape that will suit all”, the report said.

In recent months, “the strengthening of the position of the foreign investing”. In early may, the area was came to the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, reminding that “had to Alexey Ostrovskiy became the head of the region.” He “praised the work of Governor as a whole favorably”, as noted in the report. In the case of Vadim Potomsky, “the center remains focused on long-term performance” with him, despite the existence of “certain questions on the situation in the Oryol region”. For example, during the “Straight line” the inhabitant of the Oryol region told the President about the problems with drugs, mentioning the Governor, however, “the President responded with utmost restraint, clearly not addressing the charges to the regional authorities”, noted the APEC.

“The centre does not emit the opposition governors in a specific group and not yet set up for their quick replacement,” but “one of the efforts of the heads of actors to find allies at the Federal level and to build an effective model of relations with Moscow”, — concluded the experts of APEK.

Political analyst Alexander Kynev told “Kommersant” that the stability of a Governor in the first place “depends on the individual, not from opposition.” “All three governors have in common — most of their administration is composed of representatives of “United Russia”. If compared to the predecessors Sergey Levchenko looks quite decent, Vadim Potomsky is a figure of the most awkward and author of anecdotes” — said the analyst.