The reduction in the number of pensioners will not reduce the size of pensions
“Strategy Kudrin” proposes to tighten the conditions for obtaining a pension insurance.
In society there is a considerable request for state pensions, but the amount of pension provides only a minimal standard of survival, according to the materials of the strategy-2035, the Center for strategic research (CSR) under the leadership of Alexey Kudrin has prepared for President Vladimir Putin. The strategy proposes to the President to create a sustainable pension system that would provide a socially acceptable standard of living for pensioners. Vedomosti managed to get acquainted with the materials, their authenticity confirmed three Federal officials.
For 2014-2016, the average pension decreased by 7% in real terms, amounting to 1.5 of the living wage of the pensioner and 34% of the average wage (the average insurance pension is 1.6 and 35.6%, respectively), according to the materials of the CSR. In 2012, the ratio of the average pension to the subsistence minimum was as high as 1.8, and adopted in the same year, the government strategy for long-term development of the pension system assumed for the insurance of pensions to bring this figure up to 2.5−3, and the ratio of pension with average earnings — up to 40% of the minimum standard recommended by the International labour organization.
To create a sustainable pension system comes at the expense of raising the retirement age to 63 years for women and 65 years for men in increments of six months per year from 2019.
As a result of this measure, the number of pensioners will be reduced by 9% to 3.87 million to 38.52 million in addition, it is proposed to tighten the conditions for receiving pensions.Center for strategic research
The length of service required for the accrual of pension which is now annually raised to 15 years to 2024, we need to continue to increase further up to 20 years, according to the materials.
The minimum number of pension points, which now increases annually up to 15 years to 2024, then you need to increase to 52, offers strategy. Social pension, which is given to those who did not work on insurance will be granted upon reaching 68 years of age (now 65 years for men and 60 for women).
At the same time will harden conditions for granting early retirement pensions: the minimum required experience of doctors and teachers will be raised to 35 years.Center for strategic research
According to experts of the CSR, the implementation of the proposed measures will improve the ratio of pension to the subsistence minimum to 1.85 to 2024 and to 2, which now increases annually up to 15 years to 2024, while transfers from the budget to Finance pensions will be reduced by 0.9% of GDP by 2024, which now increases annually up to 15 years to 2024, i.e. virtually zero. The ratio of the average pension insurance with the average salary will remain at the level not lower than 34%, according to the authors of the strategy: in other words, the proposed reforms are designed to prevent the reduction of pensions, and not aimed at its promotion.
CSR has repeatedly talked about the need to raise the retirement age to ensure a decent pension, reminds his representative. The fate of those or other proposals will be determined by the President, he has not yet passed, said the representative of the CSR. Any proposals that affect many citizens must go through a public hearing, after will be made by the President or the government for discussion, he added.
According to the Pension Fund, now the average experience of retired citizens is 34 years, average number of pension points is about 110, i.e., on average, earned slightly more than 3 points per year.Center for strategic research
In 2017, this corresponds to the contributions with earnings 22 000 RUB. per month (far below average earnings in the country — 36 703 RUB in 2016).
Per year you earn at least 1 point for the payment of contributions from salaries at the level of the minimum Wage (7500 RUB), lower wages pension rights do not form. which now increases annually up to 15 years to 2024, 2017 — 8,26).
To get 52 points, you must pay contributions for 26 years, since earnings in 2 of the minimum Wage. According to Rosstat, in 2016 salaries less than 2 minimum wage (up to 15 000 RUB.) received at least 18.4% of employees of large and medium organizations and enterprises (still at 8.4% of the salary was in the range of 13 800-17 000 RUB.). Raising the minimum Wage to a living wage of able-bodied population (now 10 466 RUB) — this instruction was given Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of economic development will increase the share of workers with income up to 2 minimum wage to about half. While every tenth employee as of 2016, earned less than 10 600.
when you raise the minimum Wage to this level, such people can only rely on a social pension, which is unlikely to provide a socially acceptable standard of living (social pension – 8742 RUB – only 2.4% above the subsistence level).Center for strategic research
Raising the minimum Wage to a living wage will require recalculating the minimum number of points, the Director of the Institute for social analysis and forecasting Ranhigs Tatyana Maleva, but its value is also the size of a living wage: there is a motive to understate.
In General now it is really not a significant increase in pensions, confirms it: even the whole range of proposed measures does not allow to do it, but only keeps the amount of pensions at the socially acceptable level.
The main reason for this is the demographic scissors: a sharp reduction in the number of working-age population and the concomitant rise in pension age.Center for strategic research
But in this situation, the reduction of the transfer on pensions needs to be discussed, Malev says: “I do not see opportunities to reduce transfer”.
Raising the retirement age, and gives some savings, the question — who, she says: the Pension Fund or the budget.
It would be true, according to Maleva, this saving to share with retirees or as an option to form a reserve for a “rainy day bottom”: now increases annually up to 15 years to 2024, after which the situation starts to improve.