Britain with the start Brexit is entering a period of “great uncertainty”

Britain with the start Brexit is entering a period of “great uncertainty”

LONDON, Mar 29 — RIA Novosti, Maria Tobacco. Prime Minister Theresa may on Monday will formally launch the procedure for withdrawal from the EU. This means that, in accordance with the rules prescribed in article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the United Kingdom should leave the EU exactly two years later, on 29 March 2019.

What’s in the letter

Since 50 text of the articles is rather General, and the procedure has no precedent because no country from the EU were not exceeded, the process and details of the startup procedure remains quite unclear.

The only requirement is a written notice from the Prime Minister of great Britain Theresa may, the head of the European Council Donald Tusk. It is unclear whether this is the usual letter, email, or the message will be delivered Tusk personally by the Ambassador to Britain Tim barrow, Minister of Brexit David Davis or someone else. What will be the volume of the message and what it will say remains unknown.

Mei has repeatedly said that Britain seeks to maintain the closest possible partnership with the EU after Brexit as quickly as possible to guarantee the permanence of the rights of living in Britain, Europeans in exchange for similar guarantees for the British in the EU. However, whether these specific allegations contained in the letter is unknown.

Earlier official representative of the Prime Minister’s office said that the letter is intended will “set the tone” for future negotiations between the parties. “The Prime Minister said that the letter will be one of the most important documents in the modern history of our country, will begin to do the will of the citizens expressed in the referendum (on secession from the EU) and set the tone for our new relationship with Europe and the world,” he said.

It is unclear exactly who first announced the official launch of the Brexit: the British Prime Minister in the afternoon (after 14.00 GMT) will speak in Parliament a statement about the sending of the notification, but before the receipt of the letter may declare the office of the Tusk. However, the representative of the European Commission reported earlier that Brussels expects to obtain from great Britain a formal notice in the second half of the day.

EU is going from strength

As announced earlier Tusk, within 48 hours after receipt of the notice, he will deliver a formal response and a brief summary of the Brexit strategy. However, according to British media, citing sources in Brussels, the European side will need at least eight weeks on the development of a relatively detailed plan for the coming negotiations. The presentation of this plan is expected to take place at the extraordinary summit of leaders of 27 countries of the EU 29 April — exactly a month after the launch of the Brexit. At the same time the mandate for negotiations will be officially handed over to the negotiator, selected by the European Commission — French diplomat Michel Barnier. He will head the Department of the European Commission for Brexit.

After the start of formal negotiations between Britain and the EU. Responsible for working with individual European countries in the course of negotiations will be a Belgian diplomat Says Didier (Didier Seeuws).

Regardless of how will go the negotiations, Britain, according to 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty, will have to leave the EU exactly two years after the start Brexit, that is March 29, 2019. Until then the United Kingdom will remain a full member of the EU. This period may be extended, but only with the consent of all 27 countries-EU members.

The main question remains: can the process be reversed Brexit? Answer: 50-I article of the Lisbon Treaty never says anything about it, and lawyers of the European Union ever this issue is not raised.

Acute problems

Despite the fact that negotiations will go is clearly not very fast and not very easy, there are several issues that the parties need to resolve it as quickly as possible.

First, we are talking about the human rights situation of the Europeans in Britain and Britons in Europe. British Prime Minister insists on respect for the principle of reciprocity in this matter: that is, as soon as the EU guarantees the preservation of the status after Brexit living and working on the continent, the British, the UK will do the same for EU citizens. It remains unclear what will the rules be for Europeans who move to the United Kingdom after 29 March, i.e. after the start of Brexit.

Remains the question about social benefits after Brexit: the British conservative government is heading for a tightening of the rules for obtaining benefits, but will agree to these demands of the EU, remains also unclear.

The British government Brexit will be a lot of problems. First, many members of Parliament require legislative implementation of the government’s pledge to negotiate with them on the final agreement with the EU and do not agree with Mei, who said that she is ready to lead the country out of the EU even if it would mean an increase in trade tariffs in accordance with WTO rules. Parliamentarians in solidarity with the British: only 25% think it prudent “to leave the EU without a specific international agreement and return to trade with the EU on the basis of WTO rules”.

Secondly, the British government have a difficult work of transforming the whole body of EU legislation on British law. A bill to repeal the 1972 law that allowed European law to act as the national known as “a Great bill to abolish” (Great Repeal Bill). As expected, the government will submit it to Parliament in the spring of 2017 so that it was approved prior to the completion of negotiations with the EU. In power then he will enter into the time of the British exit from the EU.

On Thursday the government should publish the so-called “white paper” — a document that will specify the main provisions of the “Great bill to abolish”, which has been called the most important bill in the country over the past few decades.

The members of the government, and then Parliament will have to review hundreds, if not thousands, of European laws and to understand which of them and how to alter in national which to cancel and which new laws to introduce. Political analysts say that the MPs will be so much work in the next two years with this bill, that they are unlikely to simultaneously do something else.

Thus, while we can say that on March 29 in the history of the Kingdom begins a period of such uncertainty, which was not likely since the Second world war.