Experts told about the sharp rise in the US in the first nuclear strike
Passed since the end of 2000-ies in the United States the modernization of nuclear warheads gave them increased opportunities to attack protected objects, which can be seen as finding new opportunities in preventive nuclear strike against the strategic forces of Russia or China.
This article “How to upgrade nuclear forces undermines U.S. strategic stability”, published in the journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, says a group of leading military experts of the USA: the Director of the Nuclear information centre of the Federation of American scientists Hans Kristensen, a renowned expert on rocket technology, Theodore Postol, as well as the Director of the nuclear programs of the National Council for the protection of natural resources Matthew McKinsey.
According to them, the observers missed the real revolution in strategic arms, which in 2009 held the United States. We are talking about the equipment of nuclear warheads W76−1/Mk.4 (a yield of 100 kilotons, are set to sea missiles Trident II) a new system of “SuperDrives” (super-fuze) MC4700. If you have not more than 20 percent of the units sea missiles could be used against hard targets, but now their share is close to 100 percent.
“The combination of the problems of the Russian system of missile warning with a small balance of time for decision about retaliatory strike and the increased potential US pre-emptive nuclear attack destabilizie the situation and creates a dangerous situation,” the authors conclude.
The MC4700 feature of the system is that it is able to offset some of the blunders-“flights” early to undermine the block at a low altitude over the target.
The estimated probability of a miss is carried out at a height of 60-80 kilometers by analyzing the deviation of real situation from the ideal unit (with the introduction of the corresponding delay circuit of the initiation of detonation).
As a result, the probability of hitting the 100-kiloton warhead is protected silo launchers (designed for a blast wave with a pressure of 10 thousand pounds per square inch), according to experts, increases from 0.5 to 0.86. For objects that are designed for pressures up to 2 thousand pounds per square inch, the probability increases from 0.83 to 0.99 is almost.
Thus, experts write, blocks sea-based missiles can now be effectively used for counter-force nuclear attacks, including the suppression of silo launchers: in the case of Russia is, according to their calculations, leaving 272 unit W76−1/Mk.4 of 506 deployed (not counting the heavy blocks 384 W88 capacity of 455 kilotons, which can be used for other embedded strategic objects).