Cold and painful death to Poroshenko: why Ukraine exhausts itself in a corner

Any blockade, especially economic, is a double-edged weapon, because every action will be followed by their opposition. And it is still unknown who will be “guts” – those who declared it, or those who ignored her. Now Ukraine, and not being able by force to subdue the part of his “rebellious” areas – the Donbas, took to stifle her any overlapping routes. Including their side, with the result that she was without coal. And this is the inevitable cold death.

“Mom spite frostbitten ears” – not exactly describe the current policy of the Ukrainian politicallyminded primarily nationalist sense, which as the main argument in the confrontation in the Donbass decided on an economic blockade. Figuratively speaking, put on all roads barriers, to prevent any communication and to prevent the financing of “separatists”.


Those who all the time, starting from the Maidan in Kiev showdown 2014, fulfilled all obligations, including for the supply of coal to, say, in this case continental Ukraine. Coal gave the heat produced electricity in CHP plants, provided jobs for hundreds of thousands of people, including those on the “mainland”. For him, albeit not a lot, but had to pay – all work must be stimulated in financial terms. Free one will not work.

“I saw the light” at the stage of another failed military operation, some “ATO veterans”, who called the organizers of the blockade of Donbass blocked the first rail, and then took and road transport. Its information support “the headquarters of the blockade” leads through one of the social networks and until recently his “speaker” spoke the person in the status of “second battalion commander Donbass Anatoly Vinogradsky”. Soon the action was quick to lead the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada semen Semenchenko Pavel Kostenko Taras Shepherd, Vladimir Porosyuk.

In Kiev, where any attack in the direction of Russia, and even more so of Donbass, was considered a matter of honor for any “schiry ucrainica” from such actions slightly dumbfounded. In a country that is painfully refuses from Russian gas and any economic cooperation with Moscow, on the back ran a chill in the truest sense of the word. Firewood and dung for heating just is not enough, without the Donetsk coal country simply can not survive, especially in the current cold winter. Under the threat of closure was even a nuclear power plant. Cried even the President Poroshenko, who clearly realized that the blockade of supplies of coal at least finally put Ukraine on the brink of destruction.

But who now in Kiev, Poroshenko listens to or the same Cabinet, which can’t to say something about the crazy notions of the nationalists, but frankly a little afraid of them? The slogan “the West will help us!” do not perceive the humor even people partly familiar with the works of Ilf and Petrov. Yes, and the pistol has no promises to give. And that break even is a thin carbon filament that allowed at least a warm fire. This kind of children’s game into a rat when players not be the last to know who can inflict the insidious bite. And it will be deadlier than the Declaration of a state of emergency in the country, which is facing energy shortage.

“Coal – king of Ukraine. Donbass is the Royal domain, – a Russian economist, expert of fuel and energy complex Alexander Zimovsky. – I purposely use the terminology of the middle ages, because the blockade of the Donetsk coal in Ukraine bears all the marks of feudal conflict. Initial positions are. Ukrainian power plants run on coal, so there is arranged in the process circuit to generate electricity. Annually for their efficient operation it is necessary 25 million tons of coal. The lion’s share of technologically suitable for the Ukrainian thermal power plants coal is anthracite, coal class “A” and its variants. 100 percent of this coal is produced only on the territory of the republics of Donbass DNR/LNR.

If you are not in control of this coal – you have no control over the Ukrainian energy sector. Therefore, even under artillery fire at the peak of military actions of the Ukrainian civil war trains with coal was followed through the front line without hindrance, like the Imperial echelons during the great Patriotic war. At the junctions for them specially kept in readiness locomotives and the replacement brigade, and all the free paths are allocated for the formation of coal transports. It was common, when the passenger trains from Kiev was detained at the stations, because coal had priority.

Of course, from the point of view of relations between Donbas and Kiev, it’s illegal smuggling, as long as between them there is secured the customs border and the line of separation. But anywhere do not share a single national economic context, if we talk in terms of a developed socialist Ukraine. Therefore, prior to the blockade of coal supplies wear regular.

And then at the Donetsk anthracite and those who controls it, is not killed ACE. This is the price of Donetsk coal. It costs $22 per ton, which is three times cheaper than coal, which Ukraine bought in Rotterdam at an average of $66 per ton, excluding the cost of shipping (this was done with the aim to achieve independence from Donetsk coal and cause economic damage to the breakaway republics). To achieve the coal of independence failed. First, the economy in General does not like fools, applying to it the political criteria. Secondly, in this particular case, the interests of Kiev and Donetsk oligarchic clan match. As a result, transactions with Donetsk coal and energy companies ‘ profits soared to fantastic for Ukraine is 10 billion (370 million U.S. dollars) last year.”

“The difference was covered from their own pockets the Ukrainian population, which the government Groisman shifted costs by increasing energy tariffs, – continues Alexander Zimovsky. – The Ukrainian mass media launched a broad propaganda campaign, during which Ukrainians were intensively introduced in the ears that they, and I quote, “only pay 42,29% of the market rate”. Lies, it was possible to understand, over him is the IMF, without loans which Ukraine could further worsen your situation. But the Ukrainians themselves this approach is not understood. And here resumed active clashes in the Donbas, and after the wagons with coal were pulled from the front line cars with killed and wounded, though it seems, according to reports, the loss is not so great.

In this situation, Poroshenko decided to play for the Bank and accused the commanders of “dobrobatov” that they willfully violated the truce. In response to the warlords who are not subject to the military command of armed forces of Ukraine, announced the blockade of Donbass. Coal trains stood. Today, there are three “redoubt” (as released from the authority part referred to their positions on the railroad tracks). This “redoubt Bogdan” at the train station Svetlanova, “redoubt Zaporozhye” for you to Bakhmut and “redoubt 16th of a voluntary battalion” at the station End of the Curve, which blocks the entrance to a large railway node in Kostiantynivka. Only blocked 43 000 cars, or about 2.6 million tons of coal.


The disadvantage of this amount of fuel will stop the Ukrainian power generation stations in the next 3-4 days. Another week will have to extinguish the furnace at the metallurgical works of Mariupol and Krivoy Rog. Ukraine has already started rolling blackouts and declared a state of emergency in the energy sector.


It is yet unknown whether the Ukrainian army and the police unblock the path blocked by well-armed volunteers with combat experience. However, the Ukrainian intelligence service has found it necessary to publicly declare that the blockade of the Donetsk coal has resulted in miners from forced to idle mines, massively join the armed forces of the unrecognized republics. According to the authors of the “drain”, it should prompt to return to the trenches of those volunteers who stood in blockade on the tracks.

So Kiev will have to show where is the limit of its control over the remaining Ukrainian territory. Other options for Poroshenko is not visible”.

And here another interesting aspect, which, incidentally, is voiced referred to the organizer of the blockade, “a veteran of anti-terrorist operation” Winogradski. All of these current overlap routes for coal trains is nothing like the opposition of the Ukrainian businessman Rinat Akhmetov, who Donbas coal traded since time immemorial. Their business it has retained and the introduction of “front line”. His income matters, but was able to continue the delivery of a truly strategic coal for the residents of Ukraine. But the profit Akhmetov, who was the “godfather to the king and matchmaker to the Minister” with the support of the former and current presidents of Ukraine, clearly haunted by new nationalist “elite combat”. And ember corny he decided to overcome.

Author: Viktor Sokirko

Photo: Anatoly Vinogradsky / Facebook Semen Semenchenko / Facebook Taras Shepherd / Facebook Vladimir Porosyuk / Facebook